westcoastexpat

FWIW meteorological Spring outlook is out from NWS Not great for fire season

I wouldn't trust the balmy operational GFS - ensemble support is certainly there for a troughy, cool stretch to start April.

General sense seems to be warm spring and NORMALish summer!?!!

And here are the JJA temperatures anomalies from the CFS

Looking ahead, here are the April, May, June and July anomalies forecasted by ECMWF's long range prediction model

Ozone https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/storm-scents-smell-rain/

Nice evening out there. Still 50 F and no wind. That smell of convective rain in the air.

That week in December 2008 was probably my favourite. May be a cop out because it's not a single storm, but having three 8"+ dumps in a single week was pretty exciting.

This group is selfish. No one is willing to root for a Nino winter to ward off climate warming. They're going to wish for a Nina every year they are alive.

Hoping everyone enjoys this gorgeous weather this weekend! What's everyone got planned? We've got a 30 mi bike tour planned before we hang out at the beach. And tomorrow we've got a 15 mi hike. Will still need to wear crampons up at the peak given it's at about 5000 ft, but should be a slush fest.

Well I think wildfire season concerns are legitimate and highly concerning at this point.

The anomalies off the coast of Atlantic Canada are positive.

Even a 90 degree cw rotation gives the PNW a similar result

I thought temperatures between 35-45 with clouds and rain was your least favourite weather - surprised you're rooting for it?

Ops and control runs definitely appear to be the outliers, so I'd caution any "excitement" about high of 45/lows of 35 being advertised

GFS seems to be shifting toward the ECMWF

At least 5 days, if not 6 for most places you mean The writing is on the wall for March anomalies going positive

You can see on the ECMWF AI model that it wants to rebuild a fairly strong N. Pacific ridge toward the end of the run - which would extend our dry and warm pattern into April.

Even some GFS ensembles wanting to keep the warm and sunny party going...

NWS Climate Prediction Centre Outlook for the last week of March and first week of April Looking like March may be well above normal and dry when all is said and done (especially after a week in the mid to upper 60s). A bit concerning going into wildfire season.

Definitely starting to look like potentially 7+ days of mid to upper 60s are on the table

Oh there is a lot of fuel left. It's all forest in northern Ontario and Quebec. They are absolutely massive provinces.

Agreed. It's something we are watching really closely up here - there is absolutely reason to be concerned about a warm and dry spring. There are still fires burning in western Canada from last year! Smoke doesn't stop at the border.