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James Jones

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Everything posted by James Jones

  1. Gonna be really disappointing if we go through this troughy pattern without meaningful regionwide rain. Another smokefest is probably on the way late month late month if the next week ends up dry.
  2. That's one absurdly thick smoke plume. The sky is milky white up here but we're lucky compared to most of the region.
  3. Predicting a hot summer these days is about as difficult as predicting a predominately cloudy December. Best to expect it to be hot until the atmosphere proves otherwise.
  4. Looks like this summer has already tied the PDX record for days of 98+ at 7, which will probably be broken tomorrow. We also are at 11 days of 95+, the record being 14 in 2015. The first front of fall is going to be soooo nice. I'm hoping September ends up okay like we've seen in a lot of recent years, but right now my feeling is that this could be one of those years where summer drags on into October.
  5. Those buildings and asphalt look awfully close to the sensor. Encroaching UHI...
  6. Holy , that's insane. I would imagine it's gotta be up there for biggest hail ever in the PNW lowands. A humid 76 with light rain here. Very tropical feeling.
  7. And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX: 40s: 12 50s: 2 60s: 7 70s: 15 80s: 15 90s: 12 00s: 15 10s: 11 20s: 11 so far The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing. I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.
  8. This is how I've been thinking of it. PDX's average highs since 2013 demonstrate this well, the late July through late August period shows a distinct spike (as well as late June, but that may be more happenstance).
  9. At least September has been reasonable. Really haven't had a torch since 2014, though 2020 probably would've been if not for the smokeversion.
  10. Models look absolutely awful today. Smokefest should start up pretty soon if they're close to correct. Incredible how all the models delayed and watered down the trough so drastically just 3-4 days out. Obviously these wandering ULLs are hard for the models to handle but it's still pretty remarkable.
  11. It's true we're unlikely to see historically cool summers anymore, even something like 2011 seems like it would be really tough to pull off these days. My point was more that we haven't really seen any ENSO signal in the last decade around our elevated baseline summer temps.
  12. We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff. I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:
  13. Hillsboro up to a 70 degree dewpoint. I know the humidity got pretty ridiculous up north last June but I'm not sure if any WV stations saw 70 degree dewpoints with that.
  14. Pretty muggy out there already, PDX is at a 63 degree dewpoint. Wasn't expecting that already. Nice to see the end of the heatwave coming into view now, maybe we can break Justin's midsummer troughing curse! The only fly in the ointment is the Euro operational runs stubbornly showing a later end to this than everything else.
  15. If it's going to be hot it would be nice if we could at least tap into some monsoonal moisture at some point. I don't even remember the last time we had a decent summer thunderstorm outbreak. Right now it's looking like this could be a painfully dull extended stretch of low end heat with a few days of ~100 (for the WV).
  16. I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation.
  17. And the record for consecutive 100+ was all the way back in 1941. Really hoping we don't match that one. I'm hoping the cool and wet spring will help the vegetation, though if mega heatwaves start to become a near annual occurrence it could get ugly.
  18. The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.
  19. '03-'04 was my favorite winter ever, but from an objective standpoint '16-'17 is probably the best of my lifetime. Multiple snow events, consistently cold throughout including the first truly cold January in decades, and of course the heavy thundersnow event followed by a week of subfreezing highs. '03-'04 was magical though. It had been 6 years at that point since we had a major snow event, which as a 12 year old weenie might has well have been forever.
  20. Cue the soliloquy from Tim about how the Earth was once molten rock and how alligators used to live in the arctic, which means everything is fine. Given the ridiculous heatwaves we're seeing around the midlatitudes it feels like it's only a matter of time before we see 110 degree heat again. If we're lucky maybe before the decade is even out!
  21. Hmm, I'm not sure that's true. August has seen comparable anomalies on both sides of the mountains in recent years for the most part. September has largely been reasonable though. Really haven't seen that month torch since 2014. https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps
  22. It's pretty mind blowing how much our summers have warmed. I was fully expecting this one to be cool (at least by recent standards) but it looks very unlikely to finish below even the roided 1991-2020 averages at this point, at least for the Willamette Valley. It's like we've hit a tipping point where our midsummer weather is now mostly driven by an expanded four corners high. Downtown Portland once had an average high of 69.1 in August! Even getting a sub 80 average high for that month seems like a huge longshot now.
  23. I've seen them a few times before but never that striking. Is there a Tonga connection?
  24. I don't think it's even a modern phenomenon. Our coldest summer months historically have been quite cloudy for the most part which you can determine fairly easily looking at diurnal ranges, and usually have a lot of days with rain at least by the standards of our summer climo. There are exceptions of course, but very sunny and notably cool summer months have always been rare.
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