James Jones
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Everything posted by James Jones
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Doesn't he pretty much forecast that every year?
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I agree that a period of ridging is probably going to happen at some point - it happens almost every summer, there's a pretty strong signal in the models for it, and really, in the modern era we aren't going to go through the entirety of July and August without some 90 degree days (Phil has been talking about a period of ridging too, and he's called this summer well so I bet he's going to be right). But this just doesn't feel like the year for a big time heatwave. Who knows though!
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The GFS has occasionally been showing heatwaves in the long range for weeks now and obviously they haven't materialized - It's like during the winter when the GFS will get into these modes where it will show arctic outbreaks out in clown range that disappear on the next run. As you said though, the last week of July and the first week of August are the peak of our summer climo so it wouldn't be shocking to see it warm up around that time, but a major heatwave just doesn't feel likely this year.
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July 2011 wasn't even close. It was the 18th coldest on record for PDX, though with the ever increasing UHI it probably was a bit more impressive than that. 1954, 1955, 1963, 1964, and 1993 are the top cold July's in the airport era.
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Maybe we're setting ourselves up for a Timolicious September 1993 repeat??
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99 degrees with a 71 degree dew... my god is that disgusting. Meanwhile we have a perfect summer day out here. Clear skies, 80 degrees, 50 degree dewpoint, and a light breeze.
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Tim and Phil should have their own thread at this point.
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Truly incredible how much can be made of what has been an extended stretch of completely typical weather. Sometimes it's been a little below average, sometimes a little above... amazing stuff.
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We'll spend some time at the lake, but my grandparents are there too and they're not mobile enough for that kind of stuff at this point. And yeah, I'm really rooting for some convection. I've experienced enough thunderstorms out there that I no longer really have a capacity to be impressed by our dinky little storms.
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Grand Rapids. It can get pretty ridiculous there, at least by my standards.
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That Midwest death ridge is really shaping up to be a monster. I'll be in Michigan visiting family during the last week of July, too... going to be nasty out there.
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My guess is those readings are just bullshit, nothing wrong with the sensor. PDX has reported some whacky 5 minute swings too, and there are often reported readings that are higher/lower than the day's actual high/low.
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SEA had lows of 44 and 47 on the two days in September 1972 where they recorded a trace, and they also reported thunderstorms on those days, so it was hail.
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We're too sharp here to fall for your shenanigans.
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Actually there are 52.14 weeks in a year, 52.29 on leap years. Ridiculous how Tim is trying to spin things.
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We lost a full second of daylight today. Sun angle starting to feel noticeably fall-like. You can feel a little hint of winter in the air...
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As far as upper air climatology, you guys know about this website right? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/
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I'm surprised this trough hasn't brought Jim out of hiding. Seems like the kind of thing that would get him excited.
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I thought I already responded to this but I guess not. I'm not trying to target you, I hadn't even realized I'd been doing it until you pointed it out. You just come off as being a little desperate at times trying to downplay/"mitigate" warm anomalies, that's all. Maybe that isn't what you're doing, but that's how I perceive it.
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It looks like a benign summer pattern may be starting in about a week. Summer is warm. It's important to note though, that IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN FOR PDX TO HIT 100+. We wouldn't want Flatiron to get all panicky thinking somebody might have implied this.
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It was indeed a monthly record, and it was the earliest 65 on record by over a month. Next earliest was July 12th in 1990. Though they're down to 67 as of their last update, so it's likely they fall below 65 by midnight.
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It feels like a Midwest summer night outside right now, though probably not so much up in your area. PDX is still at 80 degrees, dewpoint at 60.
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Maybe you're joking, but I don't think the offshore SSTs had anything to do with anybody's forecast. They simply couldn't have any impact this far inland when there's offshore flow.
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You think we might miss 90 again??
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Down to 88 at 5:53. Uh oh. If PDX managed to avoid hitting 90 between hours, maybe tomorrow will be the first 90+ and 100+ at the same time like August 2012.
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