James Jones
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Yep, definitely looking like a historic warm spell. If we did manage to get that warm, it'd be the earliest 85 on record by three weeks at PDX, though downtown has hit 87 as early as the 12th. I'm probably just asking for a sarcastic reply here, but do you have any predictions for this Summer (cool or warm, dry or wet, early/late peak, etc)?
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In terms of anomalies in SEA, June was -1 compared to 1981-2010 averages, July was -2.3, August was -.5, and September was -3. At PDX June was -.8, July was -2.7, August was -.4, and September was -3.4. So even in terms of anomalies, that Summer peaked in August. May was warm but I don't think anybody considers that a Summer month around here.
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Are there any recent analogs you're looking at? I just have a hard time taking those early 20th century ones too seriously. It's kind of like if Jim used 1889-90 as a winter analog for this year, which I know you'd immediately shoot down. And for the record (not that anybody really cares), my guess is this summer ends up a bit warmer than the 1981-2010 averages, but nothing crazy.
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El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.
James Jones replied to snow_wizard's topic in West of the Rockies
Agreed, you can really spend a lot of time playing around with it. Lots of interesting stuff for weather/climo geeks. -
El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.
James Jones replied to snow_wizard's topic in West of the Rockies
Since September is as much of a summer month as June around here, maybe it makes sense to look at the warmest June-September periods on record. For the Puget Sound, 2015 was #1 at 64.2 degrees, 1958 was #2 at 64.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #3 at 63.7. http://i.imgur.com/Mtm7zi5.png For the Willamette Valley, 2015 was #1 at 66.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #2 at 65.6. http://i.imgur.com/Tqb4sBF.png -
January 1886...Just Another Great month From a Great Decade
James Jones replied to snow_wizard's topic in West of the Rockies
Portland has daily data that far back, but I don't know of any in the Puget Sound region. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00024274/detail By modern standards: 1889 was very warm and dry in spring and early summer, but it turned much cooler in August and September. 1878 had a ridiculously wet February, a slightly warm spring, a warm and very dry June, and an exceptionally cool July-September, though it was fairly dry. Did the Puget Sound region get any snow with the late Feb 1890 blast? -
El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.
James Jones replied to snow_wizard's topic in West of the Rockies
A more optimistic way to look at it, is that anything separating the upcoming Nina from the '98-'01 Nina is a good thing. That was maybe the most boring stretch of weather in recorded PNW history, and the lower 48 had a couple of mega torch winters in that stretch. -
The drop-off after very early February is far less pronounced if you look at the downtown records. Their February record low of 7 was set on multiple dates, including the 12th in 1884, and they hit 10 as late as the 26th. Hard to know how much of the "wall" in the airport records is happenstance from a relatively short period of record, and how much of it is due to our slowly warming climate making it very difficult to get big, prolonged freezes after the first few days of the month. February 2014 argues that there's some happenstance in there, since from a high temp perspective, it was later than any other similar event in the airport era.
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Good catch. Goes to show how our long our struggles in January have lasted. I'd imagine our longest streak prior to that was probably 5-6 years?
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Yep, first time in 9 years. Incredible that they could go nearly a decade without seeing one during what has historically been the coldest month of the year. Also interesting that they finally broke the streak without even a hint of arctic air.
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29 with ZR here. Will probably see decent ice accumulations by the time this is over.
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Nice. December 2008 was during my senior year, and my district was so wimpy that they closed the schools for that entire week before the main event even happened.
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