James Jones

3 hours ago, sand dune said:

I remember some significant troughing in late August 2015. It was rather abrupt. 

The torch summers of 2015 and 2018 ended with semi decent Septembers, below normal for most of Oregon and Washington. PDX managed a 60/49 day on 9/6/15.

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1. No, I really haven't been more focused on SEA. You'll find more posts about OLM. Plenty of other people have stations they pick "randomly" to illustrate something, it's silly to act like it's just me. Justin "randomly" picked SLE earlier.

2. Depends on where you're looking. And keeping in mind that those summers racked up a ton of hot days the rest of July, while there's nothing indicating the return of widespread heat yet this month.

I honestly don't care that much how I come off to you, or what names you call me. My goal is not to be endearing to someone who doesn't even know me. And I just don't take a lot of this as seriously as you apparently do.

Maybe you should care less about some of this stuff? 

Ah, yes. You, the guy with 26,000 posts about a region he doesn't even live in, doesn't take it seriously at all. Very good point. 

Even stranger is that people who live here care about stuff. 

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice to see you're taking such an interest in the weather not near your location now. I'll expect plenty of winter time updates from you on the weather in Omak, Port Angeles, and La Grande.

 

This is another example of why people get so annoyed with you, by completely misrepresenting other people. Andrew posts random observations from around the region more than pretty much anybody on the board.

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

1. How is using OLM, a station I have always used, cherry-picking? Still waiting for an explanation on that.

2. 85+ and 90+ days are standard thresholds we have used for years on here. Try again.

3. I mentioned a bunch of stations south of OLM when comparing June 2021 to June 2015 just the other day. Guess you missed it.

1. So because you always cherry pick one station when it's convenient (you've been quite a bit more focused on SEA in recent days) it doesn't count as cherry picking this time?

2. Yeah, and many stations in the region are far ahead of the pace of torch summers like 2009, 2018, and even 2015 using those thresholds. 

3. Yes, it was another example of cherry picking at its finest. 

Is it your goal to come off as the most disingenuous, goalpost shifting weasel humanly possible or something? I also love your tactic of smug, condescending "guess you missed this one contrarian, cherry picking post I made earlier". It's really endearing. 

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I wonder how February 1989 would have turned out if you took away February 1989? 

When you can't figure out a way to downplay it, just move on to pretending it doesn't count. Then cherry pick the coldest station in the region, come up with arbitrary thresholds for days above a certain temperature (that's still on pace to match the hottest summers on record), and make absolutely ******* sure to never mention anything happening south of Olympia.

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The fact that anyone would say this about what was still a solidly warm summer by all measures says a lot about the warped perspective on here.

 

 

Just to add on to this - It's been a full decade at this point since we've had an actual cool summer, and even that was nothing special by pre 21st century standards (especially if you include the blowtorch September). Even an average summer by 20th century standards would feel pretty remarkable at this point.

Another stat that's amazing to me is that of the last 17 (soon to be 18) July/Augusts at PDX, only July 2016 had an average high below 80. The 1971-2000 average highs were 79.3 for July and 79.7 for August.

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW Salem hasn't had a below average daily departure since June 15th. 

Flatiron says that's pretty much normal, especially if you pretend the greatest heatwave on record doesn't count. 

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Actually June 2021 was warmer than 2015 at many PNW locations, and even if it didn't beat 2015 in spots, 2015 blew away all other June's by so much that just being in the ballpark was in itself unimaginable. The false narrative Jim and Jared are pushing here is misleading and distracting. Sure the first week of July was not as hot as 2015, but it was hot, with no cool down in the foreseeable future. They want to talk about troughing when we are looking at 5-6 90+ days in a row. Seems like we have been seeing major west coast heatwaves every 2 weeks since the end of May, good chance we see another major stretch of 90s the last week of the month. 

Yeah there's been more of a north/south gradient than usual this summer (2013!). June 2021 was the warmest on record at PDX, SLE, and EUG but fell a bit short for the Puget Sound region. Even here in Portland we've been doing better compared to average than farther south in the Valley for July so far. 16 days of 90+ already in Salem and 14 in Eugene sure seems torchy...

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This my favorite satellite link...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Pac_NW-02-48-0-100

Are there archived satellite loops anywhere? I feel like I remember somebody posting a link to one a few years back.

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never said who cares... but the universe truly does not care.   What is native to an area changes all the time.    We care because we want things to remain the same based on what we know.  This is true in all aspects of life.   You can tell me the same things about my life and my environment and its the same reality.     Things change.

My original point was that I hope people find happiness somewhere.   People are really down... more than ever.   I understand it.   And I don't think climate change will stop.  

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change and environmental degradation if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I haven’t thought about it much of late, but my opinion hasn’t really changed. It’s not to say that if absolutely everything remained equal that there could be SOME perceptible change to the real feel weather, but probably 98% of the time that’s going to be overwhelmed by mid and upper level effects on the boundary layer. It’s a fun scapegoat.

That said, I do still think the immediate coastline can see some rather noticeable effects, relatively speaking.

 

I think it has a bit more impact than you're giving it credit for, though of course it takes the right kind of pattern for it to matter. Presumably slightly colder water would chill the air over the water a bit more than usual, which is the source air for our shallow mesoscale driven marine pushes (like the ones we've seen the last several days). And a slightly sharper inversion (say 55 degree marine air vs. 57 degrees) would be a bit harder for the sun to mix out. And as Tim pointed out dewpoints would probably be effected by the water temp.

This part is more speculative, but colder water might also increase the surface pressure gradient between the ocean and the lowlands a touch, making marine pushes slightly more vigorous. 

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You read into it more than read it.

Like I said, I agreed with almost everything you said. Obvious stuff that you seem to think somehow proves a point to me?

I'm genuinely unsure if you're trying to troll me right now, so this seems like a good place to end this back and forth.

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Since you apparently didn't read my other response to Jesse, let me repost it for you. Not sure why you felt the need to type out a bunch of stuff I mostly agree with. But you seem way too concerned with my motivations.

Sounds like you were reading a bit much into what I said... nothing about long term climate uncertainty. 

Just commentary on the nature of *trends*, people's perspective on them, and how sometimes they reverse. 

2009 was a near record sunny summer in Seattle. It was followed by a near record cloudy summer. I think sometimes people can be a bit too prisoner of the moment on here.

Not saying there haven't been less marine layer days in recent years, I'm sure there have. But that doesn't mean it's a trend that can't or won't reverse.

But I understand if you'd prefer to just listen to an unending chorus of Californication.

No, I read it. This is just downplaying with a bunch of "we don't know what the future holds" handwaving. Like I said, the most obvious stuff in the world without any real point.

Also a little ironic you're telling me I'm too concerned with your motivations while simultaneously saying other people are too prisoner of the moment, no?

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Get the ad hominem sh*t out of here.

Thanks.

I just don't know what your point is with anything you've been posting. That the multi-decade trend of warming could potentially reverse itself in the future, backed with no evidence at all - a point so obvious that you could say that about literally any trend ever observed in history because of how time works (the future hasn't happened yet, therefore we can't be certain about what will occur)? Here's the facts about summers here:

- They've seen an overall warming trend that goes back all the way to the beginning of observed records in the PNW starting in the 1800s

- That trend has accelerated in the last 40ish years

- There have been blips in that trend along the way, sometimes lasting for a decade+, see the 1950s

- 2010 was a cooler and cloudier summer than 2009, then in the decade since then we've seen a bunch of even warmer and even sunnier summers

- The marine layer has been much less prevalent since 2012, something clear even to casual observers living here

The ad hominem is because it seems like your primary motivation with this is to try to downplay the warmth we've been seeing. If we had just seen the coldest December ever observed by Europeans that included the most intense cold snap ever recorded with subzero highs in places on the west side, followed by another week of cold but not record breaking conditions, I doubt you'd be reacting like this.

43 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

Looks like the marine layer didn't cease to exist entirely, which is what everybody was saying happened. There's still a big ocean to our west, which obviously nobody besides me was smart enough to account for. Also not every single day is into the 90s so this summer isn't very hot. 

I am very intelligent.

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro 3 days ago for 7/9.

 

Euro today for 7/9.

 

 

None of the days on this run, in fact, are even as hot as what yesterday's 12z showed 6 days out.

WOW. Sure has been a chilly summer and it looks to stay that way!

Luckily the Euro has been far more reasonable than the GFS the last day or two, I would much rather have that be the case than the other way around. Persistent warmth but no heatwave.

It's been nice to have some marine clouds the last few days, and it looks like Oregon and Washington are mostly smoke free at the moment. It will inevitably return over us at some point but it's nice to see it put off as long as possible.

It's kind of annoying when a guy 2500 miles away keeps telling us for weeks about this phantom troughing coming up that hasn't materialized and isn't going to in the near future. We're the ones who actually have to live here and deal with this crappy heat, drought and wildfires.

It's also amazing how out of whack people's idea of "cool" is after the heatwave, yesterday wasn't enough to drop any I5 corridor station down to normal. Even with the new normals the averages at PDX and SEA for July 1st are 78/56 and 74/55 respectively.

Pretty weird that 84/60 is now normal for late July and early August at PDX. 

Should be a lot easier to rack up cold anomalies though!!!!!

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, the 1960 event you mentioned is the latest in "modern times" with 1/4-1/2" ice accumulations following the snow.

Another big late one was 2/22/1957. Portland had an inch of snow before switching to ZR and then got about 3/4" of ice. The valley had a big ice storm with 1-2".

Thanks. And yeah, I would imagine there are a lot more examples before the airport era when we got cold past early February with much more regularity.

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. 

Yeah, but of course climo changes rapidly in February. Huge difference between the first few days of the month and even a week or two later.

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark going with a high of 28 on Friday. Quite remarkable for nearly mid Feb.

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

97 with east winds at PDX. Goes to Jesse's point of this being a bit of a late summer/early fall type of heat setup, usually the downslope winds at this time of year don't quite reach the surface at the airport. 

Notable WPAC cooling over the last week, with warming over the MC/IPWP and Atlantic. Inverse of what you’d expect for a hot August in the PNW.

 

I wonder if September might be the warmest month of the year in the PNW region. Given the seasonal changes in ET/tropical exchanges beginning around that time, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility should the IO/far WH low pass signal continue, IMO.

My gut feeling is that September is going to torch. Really haven't had a hot one since 2014, we're Dew(ey).

Pretty impressive how every single high temp is underperforming. Hopefully we can have a trend like that this winter.

 

71 at PDX.