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James Jones

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Everything posted by James Jones

  1. Pretty tough to find examples of above normal 850s in a wet zonal pattern in early June.
  2. Maybe so, but at this point it's looking quite likely this May is going to end up top 10 (maybe even top 5) warm and dry for much of the region. If all I had to go by was your posts I would think this month was playing out in the mold of 2010 and 2011.
  3. Can't tell if this is a troll post or not.
  4. Good point on the marine push today, but even when we hit 90 in May with no evening marine intrusion we generally cool below average summertime lows. Last year for example it hit 90 on the 13th, fell to 56 the next morning before a high of 89 that day.
  5. One thing I like about warm weather this time of year is how quickly it cools off at night compared to midsummer. An 83 degree day on August 6th (equivalent sun angle to today) doesn't cool off nearly as effectively for whatever reason, I'm really not sure why that's the case - higher average humidity in August compared to May warm spells perhaps?
  6. Interesting thoughts from Mark Nelsen. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/05/02/another-unusually-warm-dry-start-to-may/ "But now things are getting strange again… During the past two weeks we’ve seen little/no rain for most of us west of the Cascades. 1. That DOES sometimes happen in the springtime for a week or so, but dry spells to two weeks are unusual. 2. Now add in another week of dry weather on the way and that’s VERY unusual. I just took a look at rain records here in Portland. This is crazy. Take the last two weeks of April, then add in these first 9 days of May (assuming little/no rain falls through next Thursday). 3. This year is the driest, followed by…last year! Three of the five driest late April through early May periods have been in the past few years. That’s 2019, 2018, & 2015. We know what happened in those other two years…very warm/hot summers. We have also seen 6 consecutive dry Mays in Oregon Climate Zone #2 (lower elevations west of Cascades). That’s after the memorable chilly & wet springs 2010-2012 This does make me suspect (along with other evidence) that our warming/changing climate has a part in this. Anecdotally, it seems we are seeing more episodes of upper-level ridging near/over the west coast of North America the past 5-6 years. Remember last winter we (again) didn’t have any sort of typical stormy westerly flow. The action (snow & cold) came from a big ridge to our west and cold northerly flow coming out of Canada. Also it seems we are seeing higher “upper-level heights” in the warm season. In this case everything would be pushed to the north; Portland’s warm season weather would become more like Roseburg. Then Roseburg is more like Medford etc… Again, this is anecdotal and based on what I’ve seen all these years forecasting in our area. As Pete Ferryman said yesterday, maybe the old saying “summer begins on July 5th” will disappear in time. We’ll see."
  7. Especially ridiculous when you consider how benign the wildfire season ended up being in 2017 and 2018.
  8. It's April 12th... climo is not exactly in favor of dry and sunny weather at this point. Way too early to say it's cutting into our window and we're also coming off a very dry and sunny March. You seem to have oddly unrealistic expectations for this climate.
  9. ******* improperly placed degraded sensor UHI piece of utter f***cking dog !!!!!!!!!!
  10. Sort of. Classic Nino climo is for a colder early season and a warm late season, see '15-'16 for an example. This one flipped that.
  11. Developing Ninos obviously favor warmer springs, but this winter didn't follow the Nino script at all so maybe there's reason to think this spring won't either. Who knows though (aside from Dewey), I don't have much of a feel for this one.
  12. Very cool and cloudy July that year, even had a week straight of rain. WOW. And you would be losing your mind over the record cold and wet September.
  13. I agree that the timing is super annoying, but on the flip side downtown Portland's record high for March 6th is 74... still cool to see snow falling during the afternoon on a date where near summerlike warmth is possible.
  14. This puts my house at over 100" of ECMWF snow for the winter!!!
  15. Maybe we can bring back some of the "2014 - 2018: wet or droughty" arguments????? That's what's been missing in my life the past several weeks.
  16. It is pretty unfair that things were so much colder back then.
  17. What do we know about the 1865, 1867 and 1870 events?
  18. 26 degrees here with moderate snow and a strong east wind. On February 26-27th. Wtf? Hasn't happened this late in the season in my lifetime. Gorgeous out there with dry fluffy snow sticking to everything.
  19. Light snow starting to accumulate on everything here (West Linn). First time this month anything has stuck to the roads.
  20. Nothing like a move to Phoenix to satiate the desires of a snow lover.
  21. D**n, nice stuff. Too bad he didn't note whether or not the -24 reading in December 1919 was legitimate...
  22. The way this is playing out down here reminds me a lot of July 2018. Long duration of low end heat/low end chill but with no individual days being particularly impressive on its own merits. Different story up north of course where it's been an amazing month.
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