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Beltrami Island

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Everything posted by Beltrami Island

  1. Waiting to see an improved pattern emerge 10 days out in the models before the bad pattern has even taken full effect is the worst part of following weather and weather models. These times make me wish I was blissfully unaware like most people.
  2. You are ever the optimist, I will give you that. For example, this map shows Chicago getting 6 inches of snowfall over 30 days. That hardly seems like something to get excited about. Southeast Alaska and British Columbia look to be on the receiving end of a near constant barrage of storms and will get dumped with rain and snow. This usually floods the CONUS with warm pacific air and leads to warmth across the country. That snow hole for the dakotas and eastern montana is more a reflection of climate. I would hazard a guess that unless there is a major storm forecast wit
  3. You really would have a hard to drawing a worse setup for winter weather over the entire CONUS than this. That vortex over western Alaska/Bering Sea Looks ominously like 2011-12. Hopefully this is a transient pattern, but I have a feeling its going to last a least a couple weeks.
  4. I had a low of 3 this morning. Certainly not a record for my location, but still some pretty cold air for mid November considering it was 70 here only five days ago.
  5. This forecast is a nice turn around for the time being. I will change my tune if some average temps don't return within a couple weeks. Its funny how October cold and snow just never has the legs to last far into November. By the numbers, my backyard should in theory be capable of holding onto snow from October to the rest of winter with some below normal temps from Nov 1-15. But, the pattern that gives snowfall in October never seems to have the legs to make it through the first half of Nov.
  6. Yes that setup seemed to obliterate any ENSO signal and was the opposite of the ridge that made 2013-14 so memorable for the eastern half of the CONUS. I don't think Fairbanks did to well that winter from snow perspective. They were on the wrong side of the Alaska Range and had many Chinook patterns with the southerly flow. Anchorage, Valdez, Juneau, and the coastal areas did get huge snows though.
  7. I award you with the most sensible post award. I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.
  8. I am not sure whether they are in favor or against La Nina from this. For snow out west, unless they are in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, they should be all in favor of La Nina. No two la ninas are the same, but the best snow years for the west in general are La Nina years. In recent memory 2016-17 is an example (2010-11 as well I think).
  9. Had my first wind blown flurries for the season a few hours ago
  10. Fargo #8? I am glad you are liking the city and area, but, we will have to agree to disagree about this one.
  11. Took advantage of what may be the last couple days of nice fall weather. The sun came out and the tamracks seemed to glow.
  12. Winter 2013-2014 was freaking cold for all of the norther plains! https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_14_winter_recap.html "Indeed, the winter of 2013-2014 will be the standard against which others are compared for many years." I recall many stories by mid to late winter of water mains freezing in my area, despite deep snow cover and code mandating 8'+ water main depths. The fargo/grand forks missed out on big snowfall that fell in the Minnesota arrowhead.
  13. No snow for me this am. I did over here a couple people talking about snow on the ground walking into my work. I would guess any snowfall was very localized. Only got to 35f here this morning versus the forecast low of 28f.
  14. Now you have a frost warning and I have a freeze warning. I've had two mornings in the upper 20s already. Why is the fgf issuing fall freeze/frost warnings for areas that have seen multiple freezes already this fall?
  15. This falls seems to have an earlier color peak and one of the most vibrant in my memory. But I have noticed over the years that the intensity and timing of fall color seems to be completely uncorrelated with weather conditions with the exception of significant summer/fall drought conditions leading to early leaf change. But, in this case of drought, the color tends to be very dull and drab.
  16. I am all for this boring fall weather after the last 3 years of wet fall weather around my area, and cold for some long stretches. I swear October 2018 had over 50% of the days with snow on the ground. How is Fargo weather treating you so far, what you expected? Sick of the wind yet? If it does get wet and muddy and you take a drive in the country watch out for mud on the road from the beet trucks and just watch out for them in general. Sugar beet harvest starts Oct 1.
  17. That was a scary 15 minutes. As the Tornado warning was issued the shelf cloud approaching me from the west looked like it meant business. I didn't even dare take the time snap a quick picture before rushing down to the basement. Aside from the city tornado siren going it was earily calm and quite before the rain and wind arrived. I haven't heard if a tornado actually touched down or not, but I think a funnel cloud report prompted the warning according to the news warning.
  18. I think you'd be disappointed with 2016-17 overall in Fargo. November through Mid December was way above normal temps. Mid December to Mid January was a good stretch of winter temps and snow. Second half of January was a huge meltdown. First half of February recovered just enough winter to be satisfying before another meltdown the second half. Presidents day weekend brought a large rainstorm to the entire region that was pretty much the end of winter. The dakota special train of cutters dumped snow primarily on central ND (Bismark) from late November through mid January. But Mid Januar
  19. Low of 42f this morning for me, apparently the record low is 39f. Saw it got down to 39f in International Falls.
  20. 2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.
  21. Fargo to Brainerd looks to get hammered. It will be interesting if the severe weather stays concentrated with a relative small area of intense storms or if they are widespread by area as well. Obviously the NWS has to hedge things and assume a widespread area of severe with the setup tonight.
  22. Not something I have followed for more than the last couple years, but I have never seen "moderate" severe weather risk issued for Minnesota or the Dakotas by the SPC. The most severe I have seen issued by the SPC is "enhanced". I don't have cable tv anymore, but if I did, I wouldn't count on watching much on the major networks tonight around here due to interruptions for severe storm alerts. If that is still even a thing?
  23. Well, the red river valley is one of the most oxymoronic names for a region I am aware of. It couldn't be much flatter in reality.
  24. Something to help cool everyone down, snow is falling in Wyoming. That's about 8500' so its not crazy high elevation either.
  25. These were taken sometime between June 15-17. Not sure the exact day.
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