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Meatyorologist

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Everything posted by Meatyorologist

  1. Today will be two minutes and thirty seven seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  2. Today will be two minutes and thirty five seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  3. Could be some thunder and light rain out of these. Instability is modest.
  4. Will be in Spokane to Coeur d’Alene on Fri-Sun, and driving home Monday. Hoping for a nice lightning show while I’m there.
  5. Today will be two minutes and thirty three seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  6. Remember when triple digits were a 1-in-5 year thing for the Willamette Valley and a 1-in-30 year thing for the Puget Sound? I *vaguely* do
  7. Today will be two minutes and thirty seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  8. Ensemble support on this, too. This monsoonal moisture advection is the exact scenario we were hoping for all summer.
  9. 18z GFS is a thunderfest, and not the dry kind. Cool too. Would be a great (albeit unlikely) outcome.
  10. It would be naive to say that would mean a constant 2°F marine displacement at all times of day at any point in the summer. There is a lot more subtlety, including the type of pattern, ocean temperatures, or simply how strong (or present) the onshore breezes really are. In this case we have a strong ridge inland creating a steep gradients in heights right along the west coast. Again, it only makes sense then that there would be a steeper gradient in temperatures, even compared to "usual", oriented NW-SE. Though a 5°F depression is certainly not that much noticeable when sunny.
  11. PDX is closer to the Columbia River Gap than Salem. It only makes sense that they would have slightly more marine influence.
  12. Today will be two minutes and twenty eight seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  13. First off, glad to have you here! Awesome to see new faces streaming in. There are a couple answers to your question. The functional/"What does this mean for my weather?" answer (what I'm assuming you're looking for) is that troughing is associated with a southward "dip" in the jet stream+storm track; the inverse of a "ridge", which is a northward surge in the jet. Troughing is (usually!) associated with cooler, wetter weather and is what us snow weenies look out for in the winter, since they can bring down arctic air from Canada. There is a more technical answer to this question, since troughing is a real meteorological term that is associated with physics; although you do not need to learn this, since local weather knowledge+pattern recognition goes a long way, and is in most cases all you really need. -- If you are interested, the more technical/"correct" answer to this involves the literal thickness of the atmosphere. Warm air being less dense than cold air means that it literally takes up more volume per unit mass comparatively. This is significant because we know that due to gravity, the atmosphere exerts a certain amount of pressure at any given point on or above earth's surface. We can measure atmospheric pressure using a device called a barometer, which uses mercury to determine just how heavy the atmosphere is at that location; usually measured in millibars (mb) due to how fine that unit of measurement is. The higher you go, the less pressure is exerted, since there is less atmosphere weighing down from above (the rest is below.) At sea level, where most of the world lives, the atmosphere exerts roughly 1000mb of pressure. For the sake of simplicity, let's say we have two identical airmasses, except one is 5°C cooler all the way up (surface to tropopause) than the other. We'll call the cooler one our "trough" sample. Now since we know that cold air contains less volume than warm air due to its higher density, we can infer that our trough airmass will be denser, and consequentially less spacious, than our warm airmass. To understand why that's important, let's compare what's going on inside our two examples. Starting at the surface, in this case sea level, we find the same measurement between the two (close to 1000mb), since in both cases the same amount of mass is weighing down from above. But as we increase our elevation, at the same rate, we'll find that the amount of atmospheric pressure exerted begins to diverge. We'll notice that the colder airmass will have a lower atmospheric pressure than the warmer airmass, even at the same altitude, let's say 15,000 feet. In other words, we do not need to go as high up to find a given pressure reading than in the warm airmass. The elevation at which, say, 500mb exists, is literally lower in a cooler airmass than in a warm one. If you were to make a cross-section, with x representing a slice of the surface and y as altitude, you'd find that there would be a "dip" in 500mb elevation where the airmass was cooler. Hence, a "trough"! Why is this? Well again, we need to think about our airmasses in terms of both temperature and volume. As we raise our barometer higher into the trough airmass, we'll find that we're rising above more air molecules at a faster rate than in the warm airmass, since the air is cooler and denser. To get a better idea of why this is, I threw together a diagram, since I am not too elegant with words. The same concepts are there, but presented visually. Essentially the term trough in an atmospheric context is used when thinking in terms of pressure, like a topographical map. Wikipedia has a great article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trough_(meteorology).
  14. Humidity, even in the absence of precipitation, is a substantial dampener on fire weather. There’s a good reason large, prominent conifers grow naturally (for now!) all the way down into California, despite our lengthy and bone-dry Mediterranean summer climate. Not only are our marine layers an effective cooling method; the humidity they provide gives our native species an ambient water source during our natural dry bouts, as well as a cap on destructive fire potential. It’s also all the more reason to be concerned by our sharp decline in marine pushes over the last 50 years. Such an innocuous change could result in vast consequences to our local ecology, and in many cases, it already is.
  15. Today will be two minutes and twenty five seconds SHORTER than yesterday!
  16. Phoenix barely escaped the 70s today w/ a high of 81F under an unusually strong monsoonal upper-level low and associated stratoform precipitation. The mean of 77F today is 18.5F below average. Their high of 81F ties 7/25/1915 for coldest daily high, as well as the third coldest July high temperature on record. Meanwhile, KSEA reached 85F today with plentiful sunshine. KEUG soared to 94F, KSLE to 93F, and KPDX to 91F.
  17. Tucson having its wettest monsoon to date! Hopefully we can get some of that moisture advected up this way for a juicy thunderstorm outbreak come August.
  18. I've missed some days due to work scheduling, but it needs to be said: Today will be two minutes and twenty two seconds SHORTER than yesterday... Which was two minutes and nineteen seconds SHORTER than the day before... Which was two minutes and sixteen seconds SHORTER than the day before... Which was, finally, two minutes and thirteen seconds SHORTER than my last check-in! If my arithmetic serves me, that ought to be around the order of nine minutes and ten seconds in total...in just four days...
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