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Everything posted by Meatyorologist

  1. @Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie?
  2. Likely an old phreatic volcanic eruption. Surfacing magma and hot gas + groundwater = boom boom. Whole region is a volcanic breeding ground.
  3. Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons!
  4. From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.
  5. December 2013 came out of nowhere... Just a perfect combination of clear weather, long nights, snowcover, and a decent airmass. That -10 at KEUG will stand the test of time.
  6. And the there's the fact that our sample size is simply too small to make an accurate depiction of our winter. Analogs stop being viable in any sense pre-1960s and are ill advised before the 1990s. With AGW and natural flux in pattern tendencies it's almost impossible to say. As great as some of these outcomes were, they could have done better (or worse) if the die had been rolled in a different way. There is never an analog for the winter that's never happened before... Just look at 2018-19! El Niño with no hope into the final stretch of the season, people bringing their boats out to clean them. Then, POW! Huge, memorable February, the best such month in a generation.
  7. From a meteorological perspective Sunday's storm looks jaw-dropping. But from an impact standpoint it'll be pretty underwhelming outside of coastal surf concerns. Next Wednesday night's smaller low looks a bit more interesting in that regard... Tight low w/ a bit of baroclinity to it. Could pack a punch in a small area, especially since it's strengthening on impact, not filling. Recent runs don't show it developing too much since its inception is a bit late, so we'll see.
  8. Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands) Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps
  9. Medford/surprise valley gets some marginal snow showers at the end of the 00z
  10. Fortunately the gradient isn't up to godlike levels. Probably a significant storm if it makes landfall but ultimately a footnote compared to the all time greats. a 970mb pinhole is far more destructive than a 943 open low undergoing rapid weakening.
  11. If we had a Columbus Day redux I'd head out to the bluffs at Discovery park, or better yet, drive to the Oregon coast to feel the maximum raw power of our region's climatology. It seems vapid and tone deaf at first glance but I know I wouldn't be able to live with myself if I missed out on that opportunity.
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