GobBluth

Did the Portland nws decide that shoulder season was the new phrase for this time of year?

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.   That is the worst climate I have ever seen in those Wikipedia charts.   No rain ever and near or above 100 degrees every day all year long.   

Phoenix without a monsoon season.

45 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Lot of stations on the eastside of PDX in the 28-31 F range and copious precipitation moving in-- yikes 

Cooling down on west side. I'm down to 34.

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Temps as of 7pm. Eugene still freezing at 28. The West Hills down to 20.

I think forecasters at nws being optimistic with an overnight jump above freezing anywhere near Portland.

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS trended way colder for down here. Ice arrives just before sunset tomorrow and continues through the morning. The 06z GFS had PDX at 41 Wed 10am, now the 12z shows 27 with ice still. The models always are too aggressive with scouring out the cold air down here and it looks like they are getting a better handle of the low level cold air. If there is an east wind, PDX will not thaw out.

If we're using 2004 as an event analog then the gfs persistent cold pool idea fits.

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

If the first low can't moderate the Columbia Basin cold pool the second low approaching Thursday will just renew the surface chill.

As if the snow level makes a difference when we're getting sleet and 16 degrees.

I will never doubt the NAM precip type profile after this one.

Noisy stuff falling outside to be just snow in Tanasbourne area. Think it's at least half sleet still. Bizarre with all the all snow reports around me 

Mostly sleet in Beaverton.

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Is there consensus now that this won't start in metro area until late morning?

Sneaky problem around town is going to be a lot of wet pavement as things get down to freezing, even during a "dry" day.

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

00z GRAF is out, looks great here. 10" strip right over me

The trend of dragging the start into the day in Saturday isn't great 

Portland nws taking the mesoscale models precip fields over the globals.

Just now, Doinko said:

We sometimes get similar gusts to areas east of I-205 in certain situations like this. I've never experienced that strong east winds but they do get strong sometimes

Downed trees and power lines when everyone needs their furnace running. Uh oh.

Just now, Doinko said:

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

Has Cedar Mills ever over performed like that in a winter east wind situation?

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely enthusiastic about what's to come but I've learned not to say anything until snow starts flying. That being said-- looks gnarly.

Easy to be enthusiastic about the potential, but we've been burned way too many times, and not having the euro totally on board doesn't help.

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Amazing snowstorm, sometimes I'm forgetting this is 2-3 days out. Foot of snow with temps in the low teens

 

Powder snow in Portland is a rare thing.

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Big snow for PDX

 

Similar to the storm 7 years ago. Portland is slammed by wrap around moisture from a low to the south.

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Monday... cold air is eroding faster than previous run.     Still sunny with high clouds.  

No snow cover...

And no second low for Seattle.

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Who finds the NWS inaccurate? They use a variety of models and tools to determine their forecasts, with additional human input from folks who know the local microclimates and patterns (usually). They definitely have missed big events in the past, but I'm not sure where you're getting these big sweeping statements from 

They have a habit of responding too slow to actual conditions that go against their forecast, then they overcompensate.

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here’s the text output. Saturday would be a lot of fun. 6 inches of snow with raging east winds while temps are mainly in the teens. Then no thawing out until Thursday.

14 degrees with 850 temps above 0? 

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then you have the EPS which was bullish on the jet stream returning by late next week.   No clue what will happen.

Seems splitty

Wtf is the euro doing middle of next week, block rebuilds in the Pacific?