GobBluth

Death to ground insects!

The block is going to reassert once the Saturday wave passes...

It's going to move towards the gem progressive solution.

End of gfs has a major Feb 96 vibe

It's a little surprising how undynamic the pattern is for California all the way into mid January. Like the expected El Nino split is set just too close to the coast ripping all storm activity apart.

The low moving in the morning of the 9th has real potential in that gfs track.

Good mountain snow pattern at least

Big time pull back on gfs for anything meaningful first week of January. Splitsville.

95-96 was an amazing Portland winter. Epic windstorm, a long spell of 1000 foot snow levels, snowstorms in lowlands, a wild mid afternoon arctic blast, more snow, freezing rain. Then everything went under water. Addendum: the late January arctic blast is the only time I remember feeling the atmosphere "becoming" arctic.

The gfs issues in the long term are comical.

What's last time a strong El Nino delivered a post new years cold blast to the nw?

Gfs throwing a low into Baja is an interesting long range tidbit

The northern stream is pinwheeling around itself in Siberia.

Since nw cold action is likely off the table until the proverbial spring break cold snap, let's enjoy California getting hammered over and over.

Gfs gets real Ninotastic at the end.

Warm frontal moisture definitely not as hyped thus far thru Portland.

The persistence on the gfs to rebuild some western US ridging is impressive.

.74 on the day in Beaverton, yet it seems like an underperformance.

West side of Portland area overachieving low temps. 23 in Beaverton.

Are Graphcast maps available to public?

Early season inversion event in Western Oregon today.

968mb low offshore Eureka at day 9.5.

Looking at the long range models and persistence of some west coast ridging- a common October theme lately - makes me amazed in an event like the Columbus Day storm. Yes, completely different atmospheric regime 61 years ago, but difficult to imagine a similar event this early into fall..

The switch to cool nights starting on the 4th was glorious.

Lots of clouds out there. 90 would seem tough..