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About SeanNyberg

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    Bellevue, WA

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  1. Steady heavy snow in downtown Bellevue, been nonstop all day. East wind is doing its thing, you can tell by the flakes and the big American flag flying downtown that the wind is coming in from the east consistently and moderately.
  2. I'm not sure if this was discussed on here already, but Jaya seems to think the issue with the poor modeling is that they are initializing incorrectly as they start their runs with little to no snow on the ground, which can completely throw off the temperature forecast. If the model thinks there is 3 inches on the ground for a region, but there is actually 8-12 inches over a wide area, that is going to affect the temperatures and keep things cool a lot longer than it would if there were only 3 inches. So I think the models are going to be a bit useless today and tomorrow and we are
  3. Did the euro have snowfall totals before they flip it to rain?
  4. The snow in central and east king county is crazy relentless, the radar is getting some of it, but it just doesn’t stop. Not complaining at all!! I am just astonished. This is so rare it is nuts.
  5. Snow is insane here in Bellevue, probably 8 inches this morning, over a foot by this afternoon. Hasn't really stopped, goes from light to moderate to light to moderate. With this afternoon snow the flakes have grown a bit, not those sloppy large flakes, but the medium, really sticky, legit snowflakes. There is a good discussion about this on Twitter right now, showing the increased vertical lift is giving us the fluffier flakes. There is no doubt that this storm over performed... fantastic. Also happy the East Puget Sound Lowlands are getting a good dump right now.
  6. Listen. I understand why the local Seattle Mets are being conservative about those east winds, especially those on TV. But some are saying things like 1-3 inches for Issaquah. Which is obviously possible. But the Nam, GFS, and Euro are all saying 7, 8, 9+ ... it seems a bit odd that every major forecasting tool (except maybe the WRF) is saying big big numbers and they are hedging SO low. I would understand if there was some major split in the models, but there’s nothing. I know like two hours ago I defended the NWS for being cautious. But with the most recent Nam and GFS and the 18z
  7. I live in Downtown Bellevue. Parents and sister both live in Issaquah. I can confirm this! Light snow in Bellevue. Slight flurry in Issaquah
  8. I LOVE that Euro!! It also seems more reasonable with the snow totals, somewhat more believable. Plus the extra 1-2 inches on Sunday. LOVE LOVE LOVE
  9. Let’s see this Euro. The last run of the King before snow starts falling in earnest.
  10. The NWS balances data/science and responsibility to the public. They know that there’s a chance of east winds eating up central sound snow, they also know the models are more bullish on the high snow totals. So they have to chose a path and they know if they say 2-3 or 3-4 people will prepare for 8-10 lol. If they SAY 8-10, the public would actually go into a panic and make big decisions and choices that are panic induced. Whether it is “right” or “wrong” they have a responsibility to the public and to think of how their guidance will be interpreted by citizens along with government
  11. You just have to look back to that massive, short, wind storm a month ago. NONE of the models predicted it, except the Euro. Granted, two, three hours prior a few started to hint at something, but Euro was on board WAY early and had the wind speed and locations down spot on. It was amazing. I was raising the alarm all day about the wind and everyone thought I was nuts because NO ONE was talking about it on the news, but the Euro was steady and consistent. Much like it has ben recently with the snow for tonight and tomorrow.
  12. What I find funny about Cliff Mass, and always have, (well... this is one of many issues I have with Mass), so, no one can deny he knows weather, especially in the Pacific Northwest, probably better than anyone. Not that he's always accurate, but, no one can deny that he lacks all the requisite knowledge. So then he posts these Blog posts and they are always just "This is what the WRF says, so this is what is going to happen." There is no analysis. You would expect the academic would then discuss some issues that aren't easily picked up on with the models, etc. I understand he has an inte
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