Jump to content

SeanNyberg

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    334

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SeanNyberg

  1. SeanNyberg
    my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
  2. SeanNyberg
    Yeah, it was pretty loud. Thank God no one was out and about
  3. SeanNyberg
    Big branch down in my front yard from this morning’s winds. IMG_9549.mov
  4. SeanNyberg
    Where?
  5. SeanNyberg
    The low placement among the three major model ensembles.
  6. SeanNyberg
    "I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out." Based on what? What situation are you reading in the NE Pacific? and how is the GFS misreading it? It is such a bold and declarative statement, it seems weird.
  7. SeanNyberg
    Gun to the head, bet the house, everything on the line, obviously the smart bet is to follow the Euro. It is just statistically more accurate. HOWEVER, and I think this is where a lot of you guys get lost, just because it is accurate more often, doesn't mean it is always more accurate. The GFS is a great model, even though we love to mock it. And it puts the low farther north for a reason. The Euro is a fabulous model and it puts the low farther south for a reason. Meaning, they could "show their work" and describe why they're guessing what they're guessing. It is not just made up out of nothing. There is a REASON the GFS wants to put it so far north. But there is also a REASON the Euro wants to drive it south. The Euro has a great track record, but it does screw things up sometimes. The GFS has a very good track record, but it too screws things up. So this is far from done. Both have been pretty consistent with their placement of the low. There are a number of things that the GFS has sniffed out before the other models in the run up, but the same could be said for the Euro. The point is (get to it already!) is that the uncertainty is real and not just wish casting. Just because the Euro has a better track record, doesn't mean it is always right, but it DOES have a better track record. So... knowing ONLY what we know now, if I was forced to bet, I would bet on the Euro SIMPLY based it's better track record. But would I do so confidently? No. Would I be shocked if I lost my bet and the GFS was more accurate? Not at all. Is this still pretty far away with a NUMBER of rare components at play for this region? Yes. This is the fun part. But disregard anyone who presents any model as gospel. The one thing I can guarantee is that the Thurs-Sunday period will NOT play out exactly as the Euro, GFS, or GEM are forecasting. But which will be closest? Time will tell!
  8. SeanNyberg
    Why does it have to?
  9. SeanNyberg
    That 3 hour snowfall rate is INSANE for an area like Seattle.
  10. SeanNyberg
    This event is really looking dynamic. I know we always knew that it would. But more and more features are popping up. The potential intensity and potential length add to everything else. Pretty exciting.
  11. SeanNyberg
    I love how we keep pouring our expectations into a model (Euro) that had the entire region in the deep freezer (low teens) just a day or two ago, but now we're looking at many of those places sitting at or above freezing. Euro is struggling with this event.
  12. SeanNyberg
    Yep! Enjoy
  13. SeanNyberg
    And the problem with this forum (and this isn't personal, it's a general problem with PNW weather) is that Ups for some are Downs for others and vice versa. So... this event should provide for a good post-mortem
  14. SeanNyberg
    I see. Yes, the Euro has definitely been pulled toward the GFS MUCH more than the GFS was pulled toward the Euro. We still have no clue how anything will play out. I mean, the Euro may totally cave to the GFS at the end, but then we may end up with 10 degree highs. So, it is funny to hear folks talk about which model was right or wrong, when ALL we have are wobbling models, we have no clue what is going to happen and no way to determine which model was actually right or wrong. (this last part has nothing to do with you, lol, just got tacked on to my reply)
  15. SeanNyberg
    But that changes nothing regarding what I posted.
  16. SeanNyberg
    00z Euro still pushing Seattle into the teens on Saturday.
  17. SeanNyberg
    The Euro is... yes. But experience has shown that these things tend to have a hard time picking up light precipitation that can add up quickly. I know that you know that. Or that you know that I think that. LOL. So when I comment on your posts, I'm not directing it at you, I'm just adding some experiential context for the 300+ guests who are following along.
  18. SeanNyberg
    Friday night into Saturday: Temps look to hold the same from the 00z run across the board. Euro is just bringing in the air a little later.
  19. SeanNyberg
    This will fill in. It always does.
  20. SeanNyberg
    12z Euro: Portland running 3-7 degrees warmer on Wednesday. Seattle -1 to +2 model to model change.
  21. SeanNyberg
    They’ve all retreated slowly back to the gfs run after run.
  22. SeanNyberg
    Yes. This will look more like the gfs in terms of snow than the drier euro from yesterday. The 12+ inches is likely overdoing it. But the trace to 2 inches is way too low: The other maps will start filling in shortly
  23. SeanNyberg
    Why is it the gfs that is causing the disparity? Maybe it’s the icon that’s smoking. They’ve all been creeping toward the gfs the last few runs. GEM and EURO both had us in the low teens only two days ago and that’s completely off the table now. They’re the ones that seem crazy in retrospect.
  24. SeanNyberg
    To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas. sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day. i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time. So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it. Champagne should be popping. oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.
  25. SeanNyberg
    If that were to happen, those gaps would be filled as well. I can't count how many times I've seen this leading up to an event and it starts with bleeding in maybe 1" the day before, and then finally updates it with 5+ inches as it snows on the HRR
×
×
  • Create New...