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  1. I think you’re spot on about surprises. EURO shows nothing down there right now.
  2. With SE flow this is just perfect for storm lovers. Always fun to see these storms pop to the south and move over the lowlands. ...Central Oregon (near/east of the Cascades)... Downstream (to the northeast of the approaching mid-level low), forcing for ascent is generally forecast to contribute to considerable thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Forecast soundings indicate that CAPE may remain limited to 500-1000 J/kg or less, but beneath 30-70 kt southerly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, strong deep-layer shear will be at least conditionally supportive of isolated supercells posing a risk to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.
  3. Anyone else notice the GDPS consistently overestimates CAPE? Any ideas why?
  4. Hard to say if this is just the higher elevations bleeding down to North Bend but this is crazy to see nonetheless. Flying out today and hoping I’m not missing an epic spring snowstorm!
  5. Nice uptick from the NAM. Given the trends and typical challenges from these upper level systems, an over performance is certainly possible.
  6. Pretty impressive convergence zone showing up on the 18z NAM for tomorrow evening
  7. Temp just dropped to 35 in North Bend. Easterlies should be increasing now.
  8. I agree. The EURO has now dropped dew points 3 runs in a row. Seems like the GFS overdoes outflow and the EURO under-does it. Come on!
  9. Not much change. However, it did take increase outflow and drop dew points a bit.
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