DJ Droppin

Why not go with my annual snowfall forecast every Winter of 2-39"

Nice. Randy is an admin in my FB group as is Benjamin Jurkovich. I have so many awesome admins covering different regions (South Valley, Eastern Oregon, Puget Sound, Whatcom County) our groups kicks friggin a$$

A few thoughts to add. Now that there seems to be a pretty good consensus on a Waldort-Yachats track for the Thursday system a high-impact snow event/storm for PDX metro looks more likely. Arctic air will progress westward through the Gorge tonight through Friday and we'll begin to see the 850/925 contours that are now aligned more north to south, or northeast to southwest transition to orienting themselves west to east as they stack up over the Gorge with a steepening temperature gradient(warmest over PDX, coldest The Dalles eastward). That is a classic signature for all backdoor arctic blast

My hunch is tonight the EURO will sample the low level air mass better and spit out a lot more snow for PDX

For PDX still not nearly as cold or low level cold as the GFS, BUT given current observations show the EURO isn't handling the 850s and cold surface temps in the Columbia Basin, I really think the EURO is missing the boat with when we change over to snow, and modeled temperatures. EURO has too much WAA for weak lows that dissipate just offshore. Won't happen.

Day 2

This is real interesting. Sharp pressure rises now occurring over the Columbia Basin. FAR more than modeled. This would signal arctic air progressing southward. This is Moses Lake pressure reading.

Yeah. I see some brighter pockets here and there, but hoping the clouds hold strong.

12z GEFS has even stronger low level cold in the Gorge. 4 AM Thursday to midnight The Dalles drops from 28 to 15. Friday-Saturday is a bone chilling 13-16 F. Wow.

That's with 35-50mph east winds

Jeez. GFS shows PDX metro gets 20-25" of snow, then .75 to over 1" of freezing rain.

NAM paints a Crippling and destructive ice storm for Yamhill, western Clackamas, western Marion, Polk, Tillamook counties.

Deeper arctic air is now surging over the Canadian border into north central and northeast Washington. 850s of -19c are seen over southern British Columbia with -15c nearing Oroville(north of Omak). RAP 4hr trends shows the air mass moving south about 150 miles over that period of time. That's pretty decent. Additionally, the YKA(Kamloops) to OMK(Omak) gradient is now up to +9.1mb with good pressure rises over southern British Columbia. Watching Mesoanalysis 925/850mb temp charts and the OMK(Omak) to (PDT) Pendleton gradient will be very useful to track the progress of the frigid air mass into

6z GEFS for PDX shows another new wrinkle. Now 850mb mean temp cools again Saturday into Sunday back to -6.2c. Hmmm... Friday also much colder mean high temp 22 F. PDX and Seattle both also barely warm to 32 briefly Sunday before dropping into the upper 20s going into Monday not moderating like previous runs.

PDX High Temp 21 Friday