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DJ Droppin

Night Shift
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Everything posted by DJ Droppin

  1. It seems like models are moving away from previous solutions of stalling Ian west of Tampa for 2-3 days. I guess that's good.
  2. Well, this isn't good. 2:20 AM Hurricane Ian Cat 3: 125mph - Pressure 952mb 00z EURO forecast 8 AM EDT: 966mb. Ian is at least 14mb stronger than modeled.
  3. The 12z ECMWF Rainfall totals ending 5 PM Thursday The EURO has suddenly turned quite wet Wednesday-Thursday, especially for western Oregon. That figures I was going fishing in memory of my brother on that day. Cancelled now. Ensembles in agreement too. Oh well....
  4. Ian is looking healthier by the minute. I wouldn't rule out rapid intensification over the next 6 hours.
  5. 00z ECMWF takes Hurricane Ian just west of Florida skirting by Tampa Bay. It's not nearly as strong on this run. Models are not yet consistent with track nor intensity.
  6. Yeah the ensembles have also been a let down. After Day 6-7 they had routinely showed a sharp cooling trend persisting into the second week of October with temps remaining around or slightly below average with precip chances too, but 36-48 hours later back away from any pattern change. Annoying. It's not October yet, so this isn't too alarming. 6z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes
  7. 00z GFS Hurricane Ian tracks north and weakens to 976mb landfall near Alligator Point, Carrabelle, Saint George Sound Florida.
  8. The seasonal increase of arctic sea ice extent has begun. Did I say that right. This Winter we might make a run for that 1981-2010 average criteria.
  9. So we are going to have a triple Nina, back-to-back-to-back, but is there enough data of any previous ones to establish any kind of analog years to look at? I'm not so sure. A lot of unknowns and roll of the dice for the Fall and Winter. 00z GFS Running.... NOW
  10. Thank you. I wonder why I just vanish sometime in April usually. I dunno. Hoping for an active Fall and blockbuster Winter. The great white arctic winter of 2022-2023. All is as well as it can be. Hopefully things will get better. Focusing on the weather and my groups is a good distraction. 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 16 minutes
  11. 00z GFS Wishcasting Day 10-16 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals. HERE WE GO! The first real deal big league trough of the Fall season way out in la-la land! Models have begun to show the infamous wishcasting/eye candy type stuff in the Day 10-16 time frame and that will only become more common throughout the Fall and Winter months. I often wonder why any model extends out that far as the degree of accuracy is nearly non-existent. BUT dang it isn't it fun to look at! YEAH it is. This isn't to be taken seriously it's more of a "What IF?" post, plus it's boring right now. I think you figured that out though. C'MON!!!!
  12. Yeha good to see all you knuckleheads here as well. Ready for the heatwave to end hopefully highlighted with a t-storm event.
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