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Gradient Keeper

Night Shift
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Everything posted by Gradient Keeper

  1. Gradient Keeper
    It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG! Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes
  2. Gradient Keeper
    32.9 with off/on flurries. Light N to E wind. Mmmm, hot chocolate with mini-marshmallows melted in it.
  3. Gradient Keeper
    Yup!
  4. Gradient Keeper
    Yeah, the northern push had more momentum than I expected. It's just now nearing Troutdale from the east.
  5. Gradient Keeper
    From the north into PDX north of Division Street and just now pushing into Corbett from the east.
  6. Gradient Keeper
    Wow 4 inches.... Very nice
  7. Gradient Keeper
    5:03 am Arctic front just now into Kelso.
  8. Gradient Keeper
    4:23 am Arctic front through Castle Rock, and in the eastern Gorge through Rowena and Lyle now. Next up: Mosier, Hood River.
  9. Gradient Keeper
  10. Gradient Keeper
    Very much so. Comparing the progress of the arctic front with the 00z WRF 1.33km it's right on schedule. The boundary moving in from the north is a bit behind modeling though just north of Castle Rock. The fact the WRF is doing that well with the backdoor front into the eastern Gorge means it may be quite close with pressure gradient forecasts and if so, areas east of I-205 especially Gresham, Troutdale, Fairview, Wood village are going to see very strong possibly damaging winds. Another area of similar winds for the Foothills up into Clark County and even the West Hills. There is the potential before this east wind storm is over that we could see the strongest east winds in 20-25 years. 12z GFS in 4 hours 7 minutes
  11. Gradient Keeper
    1 am 850mb temps. That's impressive! Now imagine if that ridge had held for another 1-2 days. Top tier blast without a doubt.
  12. Gradient Keeper
    Wow 12z EPS mean temp PDX for Saturday 20/14 .... Bitter cold!
  13. Gradient Keeper
    Bitter low level cold/925s
  14. Gradient Keeper
    18z NAM 4 pm Tuesday (12-run trend) Nice trend to amplify the ridge and watch the base of the block closely scoot further west a notch.
  15. Gradient Keeper
    Not bad.
  16. Gradient Keeper
    I've never seen anything like this for an ensemble for east winds. Ever. The ECMWF Op IF it's correct would produce a damaging east wind storm, but not just gap, downslope as well. 4 am Saturday the PDX-DLS gradient is at least -14mb and the Cross Cascade OTH-GEG gradient at a staggering -29mb! The criteria typically where we look for downslope wind storm potential is -24mb. This needs to be watched very closely. Oh, and this occurs as an arctic blast is underway with temps plummeting.
  17. Gradient Keeper
    This wraps up this episode of the Night Shift. Cya later today. Root for improved 12z runs! 12z GFS in 4 hours 4 minutes 12z ECMWF in 6 hours 14 minutes
  18. Gradient Keeper
    Wednesday 6-10 am PDX finally warms to 33-35 F that is assuming the model isn't trying to moderate us too quickly. That depends on east wind though.
  19. Gradient Keeper
    Jeez 10 PM Tuesday and PDX still hasn't moderated at 30 F.
  20. Gradient Keeper
    4 am Monday fresh batch of low level arctic air spills far down the valley even.
  21. Gradient Keeper
    East wind increases Sunday evening keeping PDX in the freezer.
  22. Gradient Keeper
    Jeez PDX back down to 24 by 10 pm Sunday! Puget Sound all cold!
  23. Gradient Keeper
    MOAIS Mother of All Ice Storms
  24. Gradient Keeper
    The 6z GEFS has a very similar theme as the 6z GFS. It looks like temps at PDX fall below freezing 4-5 PM Friday and plummet into the 20s through Sunday morning at least as a lot of precipitation arrives. It's unclear how much of that is snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
  25. Gradient Keeper
    GEFS is plenty cold.
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