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Gradient Keeper

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Everything posted by Gradient Keeper

  1. Gradient Keeper
    Day 2
  2. Gradient Keeper
    00z GFS Day 1
  3. Gradient Keeper
    Just a temporary blip right now before models key in on this pattern change. Much colder runs coming soon. It's coming. Soon. Twice. The first visitation and then it comes back again. Yeah.
  4. Gradient Keeper
    North Pacific view
  5. Gradient Keeper
    18z GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly - Day 7 to 16 Before anyone starts to doubt the potential ahead or is discouraged after some downturns with a few GFS Op/Ensembles runs watch the loop. Look how stable the pattern is with a massive Gulf of Alaska/Eastern Aleutian Block and persistent Southeastern/Eastern US ridge. We are quite close to going straight into a cold, possibly arctic air pattern with reloads and snow(moisture dependent). It all depends on the upstream trough over the Sea of Okhotsk/Western Bering Sea, and downstream with the Southeastern US ridge and its amplitude. Don't lose hope yet. Models could easily trend back in our favor. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!!
  6. Gradient Keeper
    If you believe in the Kona, Kona will believe in you. Okay, that sounded stupid. Yeah. Anyhow. B E L I E V E and the Kona will happen. BUT everyone must do so. It's just that simple. Sort of.
  7. Gradient Keeper
    18z GEFS was an unfortunate huge step backwards, but not entirely. Looking at 850mb ensembles shows a more progressive pattern in the short-mid term. I don't like that. Nothing cold long range and much worse for Yakima, no cold air source. Barf. Drunk Uncle has been WAY too sober this Holiday season! C'MON!!!! He has clearly given all of his stash to his brother 6z. Obviously. However, the 500mb pattern is not far off whatsoever with a Gigantic Gulf of Alaska/Eastern Aleutian block and persistent Southeast ridge with Bitter air in BC/AB. Will 00z continue this or bring us back from the cliff edge? No idea. Stay tuned! 00z GFS in 3 hours 57 minutes 00z GEM in 4 hours 17 minutes 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 12 minutes
  8. Gradient Keeper
    Either the models are clueless, or we are cluelessly clueless of the models cluing clued clues.
  9. Gradient Keeper
    Oh really? That would be a game changer.
  10. Gradient Keeper
    As others have mentioned the Day 6-7 trough is colder. Sub 522 thickness PDX, 850s -8c. PDX-EUG light gradient -2 to -3mb. Snow level 750-500' at times. Overnight into morning hours slushy snow nearly everywhere is likely. It would be nice if that played out. After day 8-10 500mb pattern clearly better than 12z. It's close to greatness and even losing the initial Kona low still doesn't change the overall evolution with the Gulf of Alaska/Eastern Aleutian block. Good things ahead! YEAH! C'MON!!!! 00z GFS in 4 hours 37 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄
  11. Gradient Keeper
    00z runs brings the madness back! (In a good way)
  12. Gradient Keeper
    Only 4-5 days away from the point the kona low may develop. Not a lot of time left for models to waver back and forth on whether or not it develops. Won't be resolved until I think Monday 00z perhaps Tuesday runs. IF we trend back to the Kona we're in store for a lot of Cold and........ Snow? .... 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 6 minutes
  13. Gradient Keeper
    Day 10-15 on the EPS should shape up pretty nice.
  14. Gradient Keeper
    12z EURO Op Day 8-10 for PDX is cold and snowy on Day 10. Only 10 days out!
  15. Gradient Keeper
    Day 10 that block is setup nearly perfect for great things.
  16. Gradient Keeper
    Euro saved the day! Looks pretty cold for us.
  17. Gradient Keeper
    Day 10
  18. Gradient Keeper
    Day 10
  19. Gradient Keeper
    The million dollar question is, how different will 00z run be tonight? 12z GFS = Horrible. 12z GEFS = Worsened. 12z GEM = not great. 12z Canadian Ensembles = Pretty good. 12z EURO = Quite decent, but a few potential bad trends, but also close to being very good. 12z EPS ????
  20. Gradient Keeper
    Day 9 cold
  21. Gradient Keeper
    Day 9
  22. Gradient Keeper
    Day 8
  23. Gradient Keeper
    What a rollercoaster of model riding the past 24 hours.
  24. Gradient Keeper
    Day 8 is very different. Do not like that cut-off between the two ridges at all. Cut-off bias showing?
  25. Gradient Keeper
    Day 7 Meh. UGH!
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