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OKwx2k4

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Posts posted by OKwx2k4

  1. On 3/12/2024 at 4:56 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

    It should be noted that our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, followed a strong el nino season (2009-10). In fact, it is common for strong/super el ninos to transition into strong la ninas the following season. In addition to 2010, other years that featured such a transition are 1973, 1988, and 1998. The 1973-74 and 1988-89 la ninas are the two strongest la ninas on record.

    I thought 2010-11 was the top or second strongest, but I may be mistaken. 

    Know it was the coldest the Pacific had been overall in decades at one point. 

    • Like 1
  2. 15 hours ago, Black Hole said:

    Obviously its true for the PNW, but I think the midwest is also more susceptible to arctic blasts during la nina than el nino. 

    Yeah. When you have a cooperative north Pacific, it keeps the cold pushed over on our side. 

  3. Upper ocean anomalies have tanked like a rock in the last 3 months from their peak in December.

    Atmospherically we favor a Niña base state already and the N. Pac is in alignment with this as well. Will be interesting if we can see a full-scale Niña with a cold pdo in place to go with. 

    We really just exited the most non-Niño of all the strong ones I can remember, so this Niña will have my interest. 

    • Like 2
  4. On 3/8/2024 at 12:16 PM, Tom said:

    Of note, is the continuing warmth of the GOM...I'm really concerned for FL this season and pretty much all of the Gulf States.

    Yeah. Been awol for a few, but I have saw that. Its a dead on pipeline almost on a map. 

    • Like 1
  5. On 2/10/2024 at 3:39 PM, Black Hole said:

    What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. 

    I agree with this. More cold air masses movement due to warmth at mid and high latitudes, but trade offs are global moisture transport decreasing because colder air, even at the equator, holds less moisture.

    • Like 2
  6. On 2/6/2024 at 10:25 AM, chescowxman said:

    Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970??

    You're definitely not crazy and that's an unbelievably damning series of finds, including your previous post on the topic. 

    I've looked at COOP data files and stuff in my area going back to the turn of the century which have since been altered or digitally whited out on the old PDF doc scans. It's really disappointing, but I'm not surprised. There's no limit to what these folks will do to enforce what they want believed.

    Those adjustments would look a lot like the global temperature charts nowadays. 

    • Like 1
  7. Genuinely sorry for a lot of my silence this season. Been great to check in aside from my snow events ever so often and check everything out, though.

    The warmth closing out January and opening this month looks pretty stout but I'm still leaning on another last punch of winter as we get towards the end of it. 

    The continued -PDO, (in opposition to what has really been a much more strong, eastward and expansive El Niño than I had anticipated) is an amazing check-down or balance. 

     

    • Like 5
  8. On 1/22/2024 at 9:19 PM, Andie said:

    We’ll be in the high 30’s to 50’s. So glad we aren’t  “sweating the ice”. 

    Very thankful. It absolutely feels warm here now. Glad to hear the quiet sound of my furnace not running so hard. 

    Truly wanted to remark on how utterly dead all my grass and everything is now. That's one of the best cold stretches we have had here in a good while. 

    • Like 2
  9. 1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

    Baker played a great game.  Until the last throw.  That was a good game.  I like him for going into Ohio State and beating them and planting the flag. 

    Yes. Was telling my brother, he reminds me so much of Brett Favre, then he did that. Lol. Said, "Well, that too. He has Favre's problem of trying too hard."

    Ohio State...That's a moment that belongs enshrined in sports history forever. It was electric, even from home. It was like he broke them. Lol. Too cool. 

  10. 4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

    My English was so bad in my post lol.  Been watching and celebrating the Lions victory.   Good time to be a Wolverine and a Lion fan.  

    Yes it is. ( not your English, a good time to be a fan). I hate that they beat out Baker, being a red-blooded sooner alum, but good stuff no less.

    But, absolutely so happy for you all up there! Pretty cool.

  11. 2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

    It’s the side roads that are still snow covered.  They are going to a disaster here.  Even will just plain rain for the second storm.  

    Here in OK, I still have snow covered side roads that never see sun due to trees and I said the same thing. 

    There's going to be nothing I can do in any precip events until the ground thaws as its uphill every way out of where I live. 

  12. Well, this has escalated from "Not much to worry about", to ice storm warning pretty quickly. I think going in all the caveats and uncertainty was well-covered by NWS and I'm very okay with that. 

    Ice events and cold-pockets over terrain are hard to measure. I wouldn't have guessed missing the high by 3 degrees today, either, based on conditions/modeling. Must be a lot of snow still laid up in the valleys and hollers out here. 

    Another unique thing about this event is that it may be the most destructive in such a short span for any ice storm I've witnessed in my lifetime. A half inch of ice and 30 mph gusts for 12 hours is bad news. 

    • Like 1
  13. 7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

    It was 1F at my place again overnight, but -3F at the Tulsa airport which is a record for the date. Looks like we will set another record low high today and quite possibly one last record low tomorrow morning before we moderate. It's been a good run for temperatures. 

    I'd say this event has definitely hit all of my personal "checkboxes" for great winter weather. I can be satisfied with it.

    • Like 4
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