OKwx2k4

Our forecasters also did an excellent job, in my opinion, given the changes and spread sometimes going into the last 48 hours of the forecast period leading up to the start.

I'd say this event has definitely hit all of my personal "checkboxes" for great winter weather. I can be satisfied with it.

May top out around 9 degrees today. Expecting to see expecting temps to start to decrease soon.

My high temp according to the mesonet was 4, but I spent most of the time I was awake at or around 1 degree. The total snow here actually impressed me. I'd say I'm just over 2 inches. Everything came together perfectly.

Definitely into some good snow here on the eastern edge of OK. Going to add up pretty quickly at this pace.

Sitting under about 3 here in most of those. Not a bad last look. I see the radars filling in as everything saturates, so only a matter of time now. I think 2-3 is a good call for me. Yeah, that snow out by KVNX is already overperforming. Definitely a win.

Yeah. It was alone in that regard and that's why I kinda didn't hold much value in it. Looking at returns across the state, we have moisture making its way through, so we'll see how it goes. Actually looks early to me, so also just watching and waiting now. I'm sure of one thing. It's ridiculously cold.

Yeah. Brown cold is the worst kind. I'm hoping to get a bit in to at least kind of justify this cold. Lol.

Really honing in on a forecast of 1 to 3 inches here per all guidance and analysis. Like @Black Holementioned in a earlier post, convective snow looks possible in some places and that may be the kicker on whether I get a good amount or break into wsw criteria for snow. I think the combined possibility of snow with the temperatures is enough, but could be wrong.

Yeah, you covered it well. One of the most sudden model disappointments of all time here. What a difference 12 hours makes.

Running a little ahead of our two storms to start things off down here for the year, I want to point out the third part.... It a week, it looks like we're going to see a beast, per Euro. Holy moly. Really starting to believe this is a reality.

I may get lucky and spike another little 2 inch round of snow out of this first storm. Will be a perfect event to set up the events to follow.

Starting to look more and more like I'm going to see a blizzard here in Eastern OK by day 10. That's very wild. Very.

So, Euro and GFS both going to an outcome I anticipate with a snowpack locked in to my North. Really feel as though we may see something pretty radical over the ozarks of Oklahoma and a few other areas what havent yet gotten snow getting to participate in the next 10 days with the rounds of weather and solid cold anticipated.

I drove home from work in the snow at 6 this morning and it was pretty cool. Like driving through a snowglobe tunnel. Lol. It wasn't possible for me to get a good measurement because of ground temps and a lot falling right at or near freezing, but I'd estimate around 2 inches fell here really quickly. Went from near nothing on roads to plowable in 30 mins. It was big chicken feather stuff falling for well over an hour. Like driving through concrete though. Like mountain snow, I guess. Was a beautiful first snow of 2024! Here's to a lot more!

Welcome back. Yeah, I'd have an issue or two with patience after a thing like that. Wow.

It'll be interesting to see if the Euro comes in line with the GFS solutions after this first event here. What's setting up is a blitz like 2009 or 2013-14, imo. Will be interesting also to see if the dome of cold and snow in the center of the country can, or if it is what's ultimately going to keep the storms developing and running the edge of the snowpack line. Going to be hard to move that much cold out very fast.

The upcoming setup looks perfect for something big to roll through, so we shall see. Encouraging to say the least. Get the white stuff, no extreme cold following. Nice times, hopefully. Would be fun to see a massive blizzard.

Oh my. I don't have to add anything to this other than that's where I've expected this pattern to go. Just getting the right amount of suppression will be key.

I've thought about this as the start of my winter since a couple months ago so it fits, but will see how it all shakes out.

Slow but steady. I think we're still headed for a good winter after Christmas. When Alaska starts going warm and that trough breaks, it'll "slosh" over to us and hopefully lock in.

Beginning to look a lot more like Christmas. Awesome.

The 1983-84 cold spells are one of the longest and harshest in Oklahoma history. January 1984's cold wave was smaller, but I joke that it's likely the reason I was born because in mid-October 1984, there I was. Lol. Must be why I like cold and snow so much.

I believe we are currently sitting on the warm side of this balancing act. However, if I were storing cold air, I'd start it over the largest landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. Interesting stuff indeed.

@mlgamerbrought up a year that has kept creeping into my consciousness and that was 2008-09. Even though it was pre-niño of 2009-10, there are some similarities in the nature of this season and that one. @Black Holehas great points about 2009 still being relevant in a lot of areas and also why its not, as well. The forcing and modeled -NAO are two very key points. That is what makes weather and sst/analog based forecasting so fun. No two years are the same. If you get close at 500mb you can get a reasonable idea of some stuff. El Niño, in the broad sense, does do some generally predictable things but I'm very thankful now that major forecasters are stating in their forecasts for the first time in over a generation that there's no cookie cutter for an El Niño or a one size fits all and to me that's a huge breakthrough. Stating things now that are science backed like that background state in prior years does matter and some other stuff. That said, I think there's still a good amount of winter to go around yet.