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OKwx2k4

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Everything posted by OKwx2k4

  1. I've not seen anything to agree with this. There is a cold front and winds supposed to move through the area, but no forecasts of storms at this time.
  2. Looking ahead, we're headed for a setup that produces phasing storms if we don't end up with an overpowering polar jet or STJ. I love what I'm seeing ahead. ENSO is trying its last surge in 1.2 but I'm pretty sure it won't reach where it was back in July. This means there will probably be another warm-ish spell as Oct closes and November opens, but it'll be awesome after.
  3. Going from a close of September at near record highs to the first frosts here only a week away from our record first is really crazy. This cold shot the 14th looks to rival a lot I have seen in October as well. Definitely arrived with a crash. I love it.
  4. Yes. When I was writing earlier in the year in another post this was what I was referring to and I couldn't think to call it the right term. Lol. This is why I've been telling folks there was so much more to this than met the eye and a spot check of temperatures is not really how you measure things. You use the same standard that was always used. You don't change it to make news about nothing. It's a coupled system and you have to use and observe it all the same. It's also becoming known that major enso + episodes work against the mjo in 8/1 during the peak of winter. 8/1 are cold phases over N. America. It's growing apparent by that chart as well that we are actually entering a long-term cool phase if we look at the 80s-90s vs 2000s to today. The chart starts right after the PAC climate shift ended in 1979.
  5. Correct on very many points. I'm still optimistic as well, but we've both correctly identified the things which could go wrong or cause a warm-wet winter. The El Nino being forecast to shift westward and decline is a big plus, along with what appears to be a consolidating N. Pac warm pool SE of the Aleutians.
  6. It's refreshing to see someone working there say what I've been trying to say for years. I agree with you. I get why they do it, but there's got to be room in there for other proven predictors. They all need their proper weight for it to work better. I think the work you've done in analogs is pretty awesome there's a lot of thought invested. With the QBO, -AO forecast, I'd tend to weight the cooler years more, but those are offset against a few unknowns too. A giant volcanic eruption and this likely being the first true -QBO since the absent qbo cycle a few years ago. Another anomaly is the above average Atlantic hurricane season. Solar maximum plays a role as well. There's more to be done or taken into account for seasonal forecasting by real weather and doing it better is what we are saying. I like the 60s analogs you used and the 2009 year as well.
  7. I'm so glad the seasons have finally officially flipped for you and that your drought is ending.
  8. This is really a pretty shocking late-forecast increase in potency of the first real cool shot of the season. Gonna have a little bite in it.
  9. If ENSO is poised for a surge, it is doing a poor job of displaying it. If anything, looks to stabilize or decline. Not really a fan of the cooling in the GOA/NW coast of US. Would like to see that sudden reverse to warming. Would give hope for these ridging episodes to finally go away for a good while.
  10. At 86/62 and 4.87 inches of rain, (today's data won't change much) September was very warm and humid as the DP averaged 60. The closing days' highs, at or above 85 degrees since the 23rd, have really boosted an already warm opening week to start things off.
  11. Of note, we have hit some of the highest -PDO values ever this year....in an El Niño. How wild is that?
  12. Ahead on GFS, if the 3 frontal passages in 10 days works out, that'll pretty much be as real as autumn can get for a lot of us. If that's our new pattern, wait til December and January.
  13. Well, there's my late 70s and 09-10 analog comments confirmed in a good way. Would be wild to see 6 weeks straight of snow-covered ground or winter from Thanksgiving to spring break.
  14. Believe it or not, I have never actually been there, but I do know the picturesque part to be truth. This whole area and northeast of me is really beautiful. A lot of the Ozarks are. I don't think you'd be disappointed.
  15. I was saying the same thing, basically. I know a lot of folks who don't believe in it or discredit it but believe in unfounded things.
  16. Here's the numerical spread on Niño predictions for each model. There are some that are way stupidly too high. This would explain the forecast avg that I believe is too high. A lot of the models start at too high of a number to begin with. I removed some of the models so the averages could be better seen. (2nd Image)
  17. Lezak's theory holds more provable merit than many of the other weather/climate-related theories have over the same span. Its still not perfect, but I have to give dues where they are due.
  18. I saw recently from something that was posted last weekend by Joe Bastardi that we are, even in grip of Niño, at only +0.23C globally in terms of temperature anomalies. Nowhere close to a record. #FailNiño
  19. I believe 15-16 was a super-Nino suckfest all the way from October up, but I was deceived by the water temp alignments off Mexico and the US west coast. They overrode some of Niño effects, but not all.
  20. I'd advise against any new articles that scream super Niño without even stating a forecast number. Like some released today. There's no evidence anywhere to support a "super-Nino." None.
  21. I saw that earlier. Let the fun begin. I've believed that fall would arrive like a crash, so this fits perfectly.
  22. Got a good feeling that cycle should break soon. The late season warm spells have made every summer seem too long for the last decade. It flips, eventually. I know it will. I'd imagine our Marches/April's have been averaging cooler than average during the same span.
  23. Lot of folks out west looking to kick off their snow seasons right in the next 10 days. Especially the PNW, but in fantasy ranges (240-384), every western state receives snow.
  24. Got a great rain and had our ditches cleaned out well. Lol.
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