OKwx2k4

That's a nice good wall of water headed east on radar. Looking forward to it! Definitely an autumn feeling day today.

I'm sitting at a nice cool 60 degrees this morning. Fall is officially here in green country. I couldn't be happier. Going to be a beautiful season.

Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic.

My only disappointment with my forecasting so far since spring is underestimating the heat/drought cycle severity in TX coming off a Niña. A mistake I hope to not overlook in the future.

The change I've spoken about in the Niño has officially begun in earnest. It appears 1.2 has topped out and begun its gradual step-down process, while 3.4 is holding stable. (2009 Analog for the win.) Also, seeing the cold strip from Hawaii to Baja warm is a huge indicator for cold over the CONUS and a positive pdo signal developing. This should shift forcing back off towards the dateline and open the door for colder futures anywhere east of the Rockies with exception to the New England states.

It's not made public knowledge very often because its not really popular (like the growing mid-latitude glaciers, etc), but, yeah. Up until recent years (record max 2014; 2 seasons off the Arctic's record low) the ice in the SO. Hemisphere has grown steadily for 40 years. It's like so many other climate scare holes in the science they don't have answers for and never predicted. This season they recorded a record ice loss, while over the last 10 years ice loss in the Arctic has stabilised and our Hemisphere is nowhere near a chance of recording a 40 year record low at minimum. Here's an article from 2019 that talks on it a bit. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1906556116

There's stuff setting up right now that looks almost too good to be true if you love real winter and cold weather.

GFS showing a nice trough cutting right down the heart of the country mid-month. Going to feel like a whole other world to a lot of us after the summer we have had.

Yeah, the UKMET was absolutely a sad winter. About like looking at NMME or CFSV2. Lol. I've never saw the Euro show above average snowfall here starting in November. I know outside of this warm cycle we are in, it snowed here November through April more often than not until the hemispheric climate shift in the late 70s. That era will return. I have no doubts now after looking at the SO. Hemisphere temp alignments shifting. They've been cold for 40 years. Flip time.

Just on the number of "once in a hundred years" events this year, sky's the limit on winter and I really mean that. As @Black Hole mentioned, 2009 and 1976 are probably my top analogs as well. We're simply slightly later than 2009 in progression. Add in 1980-81, 2000-01 and 2010-11 (Part anti-logs, part for exiting deep Niña and just actual verified weather) for background state and other variables around the globe, and you have every ingredient to produce long-lasting cold that is really hard to budge.

If the Euro depicted in this article verifies, going to be winter here in November. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-models-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ It's showing above avg snowfall for every month Nov-Jan.

This right here. Beautiful. Been waiting on this. I'm good with being warm for a bit. I'm still betting on cold. This is not a classic, canonical strong Niño. I just don't see it going the 1983 or 1997 route.

We'll see. I don't think it has a lot of strengthening to do as an east-based. I think we'll see 1.2 start collapsing any day now. I think it'll yield a moderate Modoki by time all is said and done. Some folks use SOI or another way of measuring 3.4, which is why I stated that. Like 2009, some call it moderate, others call it strong. Technically, it was strong by number for only one month.

I still use the original standard as measured in 3.4. Keeps things consistent. To each their own I guess. If ONI has a strong Niño, I wouldn't know it.

If our Niño can flatline, it appears to have a shot at being classed as moderate, which is a great thing. For those who may not know, even if 1.2 is over +3°C, if 3.4 is +1.12°c it's that number we measure by. Still giving me cause to toss the extreme Niño analogs.

Yeah. It appears that it will actually be hotter there again than down here. I think the 2011 heatwave was more confined to the south.

The funny question is why theirs doesn't match Tidbits CFS monthlies. Is there something I'm missing?

Spot on. Absolutely spot on. Nothing to add to that.

I agree with that down here too. 100 with a dewpoint of 80 feels far different that 96 with a dp of 60. The pattern is changing, just not always "here" yet.

60/90 looking like my numbers each day to close August. Looking like normal end to summer with at least one more heatwave in store for the majority of us.

I'd take it. Ground will be pretty dry by then.

That's a really cold winter and the perfect progression. Sometimes analogs don't exactly match month-to-month I have found, but the patterns and progressions work correctly. You just slide a month forward or backward. I've had the "opposite years" thing as well and believe that's due to coming from an overwhelmingly long Niña. When I'm seeing 2000, 2008, 2010 show up, it's weird. Lol.

If the latest 12z runs of the GFS are to be believed, in 10-11 days Andie will be the closest of us all who are under the heat dome to average temperatures. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy the cooldowns. It feels great after oppressive heat to even go back to average, let alone below average for a few.

Yeah. Last place on the planet you want a ridge right now except for here is in the Bering Sea. I still say better now than in winter though.

Coming on to say the same thing. There will be some late-season heat records broken in the opening weeks of September.