SilverFallsAndrew

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hope can soothe the soul, but it can also be a dangerous thing , Andrew.

I hate it too, but we have to accept once we get past march it’s just not going to rain again until October or November. 

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS looks more reasonable for mid to late April with even some rain chances showing up the week after next. Although this is probably typical GFS flailing. Fully expect the Euro/EPS to stick with a merciless wall of ridging in the mid to long range.

Aren’t you used to it by now? 

37 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Love it!! Looking so forward to hitting the road

Someday when work slows down and the kids are a little older I want to do a 2 week camping trip To Utah. These drive bys don’t really do it justice. 

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Last I checked I thought you h8’ed traveling Andrew.

Always. But I like the landscape of America. 

The only thing that has sucked about this trip is my wife’s work coverage fell through so we have to come back Saturday. 

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

Now that's a sight. Come across any marmots? They love high places. 

No they are probably still hibernating. There was about 8’ of snow on the ground at the overlook. It’s about 10,450’. 

Cedar Breaks, UT 

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What are your thoughts on this disaster @SilverFallsAndrew

I’m not that upset, this happens annually. Plus between OJ passing away yesterday and now the Golden Bachelor getting divorced I have other things on my mind! 

Omg Rest in Power OJ!

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Red River, NM?

Close but further north and west. 

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our BBQ is on a covered patio... we do that in the middle of winter sometimes!

And the BC situation is the result of Nino focusing the systems on CA.   When BC is the center of attention then we usually have a droughty CA.   Can't have it all.  

But I want it all! 

Where in the world am I now? 

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

BC snowpack data from April 1st was released. Provincial average is just 63% of normal, which is the lowest snowpack in history for the province 

Devastating. But at least people in North Bend get to BBQ this week! 

It does look like the dry season has set in. 

14 minutes ago, iFred said:

Mountains of New Mexico are a special place in their own right. It might be my ancestral blood talking, but it might be the only place on the continent south of the 37º parallel that I would consider living in.

It’s incredible. I want to get down to the Gila Wilderness some time. 

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Well, I believe most the Puget Sound region and s Willamette Valley did better with snow in Dec 2021 than anything in 2022-23. 

Counts for something, despite 2022-23 being a colder season.

If we are boiling winters down to 2 day periods then we might as well throw 2020-21 in for good measure! 

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

True. 21-22 and 22-23 both had great moments, but in different places at different times.

We can split hairs all day, but 2022-23 was way better regionally. 
 

I think December 2021 was the only below average month here that winter. I know it was a little chillier further north, but 22-23 was cold pretty much every month but January which was average. In the November-March period. 

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2021-22, 2016-17, 2010-11, 2008-09, 1995-96, 1988-89, 1971-72, 1970-71, 1964-65, 1955-56, 1949-50...a lot of really nice winters and historic events happened with Ninas. 

But there definitely is a tendency for neutral/+ENSO to be better further south in the PNW, and -ENSO to be better further north.

You forgot 2022-23. Great winter for many and PDX had a 10” snow event. 

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ve been digging thru the ENSO progression of every WW-II year looking for failure modes of developing niñas, and I think the best we can hope for now is a weak niña featuring more of a 2 wave low pass signature (IPWP and W-IO/ATL). There’s still a chance this thing fails to gain amplitude after Oct/Nov and weakens thru the winter.

But I’ve lost hope at avoiding the niña altogether. And given the QBO transitioning over summer and in-situ -PMM, a rapid crash like 2010 is probably the more likely outcome.

But..technically anything is possible. Mother Nature built the sandbox, we just play in it. Who knows what other modes of variability exist within the system but haven’t been observed yet due to our limited data sample (even 200yrs would probably only cover ~ 40% of change-EOFs possible in today’s climate).

That’s the main limitation of analog methods of seasonal forecasting. Can’t solve a puzzle if you’re missing half of the pieces.

It’s funny how everyone on here loves Nina’s and you come in here with “best we can hope for.”

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't know how much actually fell last night but the 00Z ECMWF showed it was focused on north Cascades. 

What a blessing for that previously forsaken region. 

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Got a little dim here for about a half hour as well. Not dark enough to trigger street lights but it reminded me of the Aug 2017 eclipse in Oregon.

You were a bit south of totality in 2017? 

Oldest church in the US and the basilica during the eclipse! 

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Winters’ Hill looking droughty.

Guess we only average 12-13" of precip annually.