Joshua Lake Oswego

What a glorious day! I think I could hear the plants and trees singing in joy. Well, those that are still alive.

June 25th is 12 days away. The GFS output temperature is meaningless.

You really think we will get more than an inch of rain? You have to be kidding. I bet we will get less than a third of that between now and end of day tomorrow.

Look at it compared to the 00z. Trending west. The GFS is wayyyy west. The 12z NAM mirrors the GFS. Way west. Me thinks the Euro will continue heading west until we’re left with table scraps.

Yes it is. But, it also has been trending west. Even more so with the 6z run. I’m thinking that we’re going to get clipped by this thing and end up with a quarter inch of so at PDX. The western burbs might do a lot better.

Looking like it might be game over the Portland area. The 06z GFS gives us .10” - .30” through close to the end of June. Tonight/tomorrow keeps getting pushed further west. What a monumental bust if this verifies.

Exactly. I was going to say the same thing. Forget summer rain, we can’t even get spring rain. Fall keeps starting later too.

Oh, and Tuesday is bone dry now.

The 00z GFS continues the migration of the rain bullseye to the west. I-5 corridor in Oregon gets shafted for the 17th time (seriously, it’s close to that) in a row.

I wouldn't say all of western WA will get blasted. It looks like a narrow firehose pointed from the CA/OR border almost directly south to north, but with a slight NE trajectory. Enough so, that Olympia and Tacoma will likely be the bullseye outside of some coast and coastal range areas on OR. far western WA will likely miss the bulk of the precipitation. The firehose was forecasted to be pointed right at the I-5 corridor in OR until recent model runs. There's still time for an eastward shift, but we all know that it won't happen.

Somehow, Olympia, Tacoma and Seattle will trounce Eugene, Salem and Portland for rain despite models heavily favoring the I-5 corridor in Oregon leading up this event.

The 18z NAM is sure a buzzkill through the first part of the weekend. The good news is that it is the NAM.

The models love to tease. Always just a week away...

A new development is a cold front approaching on Tuesday. High pressure looms perilously to our west.

The 12z GFS loses the rain on Monday and has about 1'' less rain for PDX overall. Game over. Who could have seen this bust coming? On top of that, all models indicate a stretch of toast weather immediately following the scattered shower event later this week.