Joshua Lake Oswego

This thing is going to bust so hard for Portland. We’ll do well to get 1/3rd of an inch total.

Another dry sunny day here in Upper California. Sure looks dry the next couple of weeks.

And Monday will be an underachiever.

You want to see a donut hole? Our ''wet day'' on Monday would be <.10'' in all of the western PDX metro area.

The rug pulling has begun for Monday. All models are lowering the QPF. The 6z Euro has less than .25'' at PDX through mid-afternoon.

The 00z GFS is pulling the typical move of placing the low NW of where previous runs placed it. Not good for Oregon if it verifies.

Showers missing me north and south all day. Still happy with the total output. Bummed not to get some extra cheddar on top.

Latest runs are looking pretty juicy. Look at this beaut…

The 6z Euro weakens the cold front even more. Only about .40'' of rain at PDX with it before the faucet turns off.

Man, the models are really backing off the rain in general. I will lose my bet easily, but I’m thinking .75’’ - 1.25’’ total for PDX and Salem through the weekend now. Seattle 1’’ - 1.5’’. Tacoma and Olympia 1.25’’ -1.75’’. Eugene 1’’ - 1.5’’. Still great, but disappointing too if it verifies.

It's looking like Portland down to Corvallis and Everett down to Lynnwood are going to be in the wrong spots. Tacoma to Longview will do really well. Eugene down to the California border will do well too. I am talking about the I-5 corridor specifically.

44 here right now. I’m excited to get outside and feel the crisp air.

The 00z NAM and ICON are slowing things down even more. The Portland metro stays dry until 5-7am Saturday morning. Friday has a genuine shot at 80 now.

The problem is that the ''guaranteed'' part is minimal compared to Washington. The front late Friday into Saturday might only drop .50'' or even less in some locations. Then, it's post-frontal showers. Those should be widespread, but it's not a wall of water like the main event. Some areas will score while others will see a couple of partly sunny days with some showers mixed in. I am so jaded by the past 30 months or so of underperforming rain events here that I can't help but be pessimistic.

Oh, NAM, you’re so silly. My house is under the PDX area red swath. If only…