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Joshua Lake Oswego

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Everything posted by Joshua Lake Oswego

  1. Haha. Good idea. Or, it could just freakin’ rain here. I have visited the Columbia River Gorge after some heavy rainfall and it’s just awesome. Same with Silver Falls State Park. I would love to see Snoqualmie Falls in its full splendor.
  2. Don’t worry… the low will end up 300 miles north or west of where it is shown now. Cold rain at best for the Washington lowlands.
  3. Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs.
  4. The GFS called this weekend’s bust way before the Euro. In fact, all models did. The HRRR is the only holdout.
  5. Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good.
  6. You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it.
  7. Looks like this won’t be the last sunny, warm weekend of fall. Next Saturday…
  8. Saturday was always going to be sunny and warm. Forgive me for wanting rain when our entire state is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.
  9. Game over for this weekend. The GFS, ICON, NAM, and high-def GEM are trending drier. Most are bone dry. The Euro is the last holdout. It will either abruptly flip to a drier solution or gradually do it the next few runs. It doesn’t matter if the models are wet in the mid/long-term if the verified amount is only a small fraction of the forecasted amount. This is either 3 or 4 busts in a row after the September overachievers. Probably about 20 out of the last 23 or so for Portland.
  10. The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.
  11. Weird. I am using weather.us as I don’t have a pay subscription to any sites. They must be using the control instead of the mean for the GEFS. Or, I’m just an idiot. Both are possible. In any event, that makes a lot more sense. No way the GFS control is correct though.
  12. There is a huge rainfall discrepancy between the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. The average for the GFS is lower than the single lowest member of the Euro. The single highest GFS member has half of the rainfall of the Euro average. This is over the full run. Can’t recall a time seeing them so wildly different. A couple hundred miles difference in low placement makes all the difference. We know how this game works when rooting for snow. Too far north and it’s too warm. Too far south or west and it’s too dry.
  13. Yea, Sunday is looking like it could be a midnight high type of day. The 12z GFS brings back the rain on Sunday too.
  14. The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehose is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does.
  15. Today is not even remotely close anomalously compared to the June heatwave. Exceeding the normal high temp by almost 40 degrees and breaking the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded for three consecutive days including one day by nine degrees in June takes the cake by a mile. I’m no statistician, but I imagine the heatwave standard deviation from normal is so far off the charts it’s almost theoretically impossible except over a very long period of time. That event was orders of magnitude more significant than today.
  16. Seems almost impossible, doesn’t it? I would love a 13”, 10”, 9” Nov, Dec, Jan or something like that. I would take much more too, but I’m trying to be somewhat grounded in the realm of possibility.
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