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Posts
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Everything posted by Joshua Lake Oswego
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The only model left that gives PDX meaningful QPF tomorrow afternoon and evening is the GRAF. I think the best we can hope for up here is 1-2 spotty inches. Most areas will get skunked or get very little. Better odds south of us, but I am not convinced that anybody from Eugene to Salem will score big either. Much better odds at a widespread couple of inches though in my opinion. Thursday sure looks cold for the Portland area either way.
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Can we just get some dang rain please. I’m tired of these long dry streaks in our wettest months.
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Believe! Trust me, I’m a doctor.
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True story
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Dryyyyyyyyyyyyyy
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Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 47 times, shame on me.
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Here comes the ZR
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Close to being a home run for Seattle. 50-100 miles more south…
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The 6z Euro showed the northward migration as well.
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The 12z ICON and hi-res GEM are very good for Washington. That swath of QPF that was once aimed at the Willamette Valley has migrated north. As the low moves east and it says though Portland, it’s too warm and weak for more than some light cold rain. Brutal.
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Guys, it can’t snow if there is no precipitation. The GFS has been right for the last 6-8 runs. There’s very little QPF to work with. Every system keeps getting neutered, split, or goes 8 million miles north. A tale as old as time.
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The GFS nailed the ''impossible'' heatwave of June, 2021 well in advance of other models. When the GFS is stubborn as heck, it is usually correct.
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Way too dryyyyyyy
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Where the heck did all the precipitation go on the GFS and ICON? GFS led the way again. Been showing this solution for a few runs now. GEM and Euro are way wetter. If we can count on one thing, it’s that the warmer and drier model is correct.
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Seattle folks, pray to your newest God, the UKMET…