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Posts posted by Joshua Lake Oswego
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8 minutes ago, Requiem said:
I'm curious about the Sunday event at this point-- still a ways off but does that have a chance to potentially be juicier than modeled? It will be interesting seeing an organized front like that move through and drop snow without any hint of offshore flow.
I would kill for any organized front at this point regardless of precipitation type.
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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:
The FV3 looks great for folks south of the metro area, but it would be a very hollow victory to see everyone up there left out.
The only model left that gives PDX meaningful QPF tomorrow afternoon and evening is the GRAF. I think the best we can hope for up here is 1-2 spotty inches. Most areas will get skunked or get very little. Better odds south of us, but I am not convinced that anybody from Eugene to Salem will score big either. Much better odds at a widespread couple of inches though in my opinion.
Thursday sure looks cold for the Portland area either way.
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Not looking good for Portland. The FV3 is great for QPF in my experience just like the ICON. It's going to be too dry when it matters.
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This is how I picture things playing out…
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ICON still pushing the north and northwest of Clackamas County snow during the day on Wednesday agenda.
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The RGEM is still trash for Portland.
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1 minute ago, Timmy said:
We aren’t used to getting domed up here, I can relate now. It’s brutal
I don’t think it will actually play out this way. I think this is a Willamette Valley event. Too little QPF when it matters for the Portland area.
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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:
Which is interesting because we are way behind in rainfall.
I have commented a couple of times about it on Mark’s blog. Trying not to be as much of whiner anymore. Suffice to say, I have been extremely disappointed with our weather since early January.
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Can we just get some dang rain please. I’m tired of these long dry streaks in our wettest months.
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5 minutes ago, yellowstone said:
I’ve been told the ICON is the only model to trust when it comes to QPF. I want to believe!
Believe! Trust me, I’m a doctor.
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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:
If you don't want ice that's very good.
True story
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Dryyyyyyyyyyyyyy
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Just now, snow_wizard said:
Why do people always assume the worst with these things. Always!
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 47 times, shame on me.
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Here comes the ZR
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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:
The 12z ICON and hi-res GEM are very good for Washington. That swath of QPF that was once aimed at the Willamette Valley has migrated north. As the low moves east and it says though Portland, it’s too warm and weak for more than some light cold rain. Brutal.
The 6z Euro showed the northward migration as well.
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The 12z ICON and hi-res GEM are very good for Washington. That swath of QPF that was once aimed at the Willamette Valley has migrated north. As the low moves east and it says though Portland, it’s too warm and weak for more than some light cold rain. Brutal.
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Guys, it can’t snow if there is no precipitation. The GFS has been right for the last 6-8 runs. There’s very little QPF to work with. Every system keeps getting neutered, split, or goes 8 million miles north. A tale as old as time.
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26 minutes ago, Brennan said:
I seem to remember something like this happening in recent years, where we were all shocked at how well the GFS did in comparison to the EURO and others... Can't remember when, but within the last 5 years. I tend to think the GFS will be right as well... Hoping for a blend between the EURO and GFS.
The GFS nailed the ''impossible'' heatwave of June, 2021 well in advance of other models.
When the GFS is stubborn as heck, it is usually correct.
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Way too dryyyyyyy
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Where the heck did all the precipitation go on the GFS and ICON? GFS led the way again. Been showing this solution for a few runs now. GEM and Euro are way wetter.
If we can count on one thing, it’s that the warmer and drier model is correct.- 1
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Seattle folks, pray to your newest God, the UKMET…
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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale
in West of the Rockies
Posted
The QPF king (ICON) keeps Portland almost entirely dry tomorrow on the 18z.