Joshua Lake Oswego

Crazy. 62 here just across I-5.

Facts are facts, my friend. I find them interesting. I don’t have an agenda. I post wishcasting maps and other stuff too. Hard not to be pessimistic and frustrated based after the past 4 months. I see a light at the end of the tunnel finally. Peace

Through the first half of October, Portland is running 3.3 degrees warmer than the average June, 2.4 degrees warmer than the average September, 2.3 degrees cooler than the average July, and 2.6 degrees cooler than the average August. Our weather this month has been closer to a normal July than any other month. Drier than a normal July to this point too.

Tim, looks like you’re in the sweet spot for QPF late next week.

The GFS is neutering the end of the week trough more and more each run. It’s slight, but it’s not a good trend. The Euro weakened the trough a bit on the 12z too. Can we just got a widespread .50’’ of rain in 24 hours? Is that so hard?

Low 90s at some Cascade foothill stations in Oregon. Incredible.

I’m dead serious. Outside of the forecast timeframe for mesoscale models, the ICON is the best for QPF. It only goes out a week though.

GFS day 12…

I look at the GEM for entertainment purposes and confirmation of what other models show. I would never take its forecast on its own as gospel. The ICON is the king for QPF though in my mind. The Euro and GFS are the best for large-scale pattern development and evolution. The GFS usually for long-term development and the Euro for evolution and finer details.

The GEM is still crappy, although looks a bit better than last runs.

Man, the GFS is pretty good, but so close to being great like the Euro. That ridge just needs to be nudged a bit further west. Looking legit cold for parts of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.

I can’t get on board with the rain for the end of next week until the ICON is on board. It’s not at this point, but it is for a big cooldown. https://weather.us/model-charts/german/washington/acc-total-precipitation/20221023-0000z.html

That looks real nice!

The GEM is essentially dry as a bone for a couple million square miles in the U.S. for the next 10 days. Impressive.

We need one at least one good soaking rain to give the plants and trees a drink. They are suffering hard.

The ICON is the real king. Dead serious. Especially for QPF.

The 00z GFS at least gives some cool weather for a bit. Still way too dry. The GEM continues to be a nightmare.

Lock it in

The 18z GEFS is further east with the troughing.

I know you like cold. I would like some cold weather too so that it doesn’t feel like August for our entire fall, but… we need a soaking rain so bad that it hurts. A chance of rain 300+ hours out in late October ain’t really getting the job done. I’m not saying that’s how this will play out, but if you take the past few runs of the operational GFS or GEM at face value, we’re screwed.

Another great GFS run.

The Euro still gives us a nice slug or rain next Friday afternoon/night. The trough is trending a bit east though.

I’m shocked that anything is still alive. Our plants and trees need a drink very badly.

Yep. Trough can’t break through the 5,000 mile long ridge. Beginning of the end folks. Best case, it’s delayed.

Not even close. A few days of seasonal temps and then back to endless ridging.