Up_north_MI

3rd weekend in a row getting a ground covering snowfall, really would have preferred this back in January or February. I’m ready to turn the page to spring.

Just curious if anyone remembers any of the “professional” long range forecasts from this past Fall that called for anything close to what we just had the past 3 months? If so could you please list them here so I know who’s forecast to actually pay attention to this coming Fall, thanks.

A group of us were out snowmobiling in West Yellowstone last week on our annual out west ride. We chose West Yellowstone because we hadn’t been there in a few years and it’s a great place to snowmobile most winters. This year they like most places are down on snow unfortunately but we still managed to have a good trip. Big Sky only had like 25% of their runs open which is pretty crazy for February. We used the same guide we’ve used in the past out there because he specializes in strictly off trail riding and he was able to get us in some good 50” plus snow depths higher up around 9000’ and higher. Bottom line is I’m not sure I would spend the money to go out west and try to play in the snow at least in the areas we were at in ID, MT and WY this year. We usually spend a day in the park riding but with the lack of snow we had to cancel our sleds for that day and we took a bus ride in there. It’s the least amount of snow they’ve had in years out there. Just a crazy warm snowless winter in most of the lower 48 this year.

Pushing 6+ inches here in northern St Clair county and still coming down hard, man did NWS drop the ball on this one.

If my math is correct Detroit has only had high temperatures at or below freezing 1 day in December and 8 so far in January. Last January Detroit only had 2 days with highs at or below freezing. Crazy how hard it is to get sustained cold weather anymore.

It’s been snowing hard off and on here at our place in northern St Clair county all morning, probably picked up 5-6 inches in the past 6 hours and it’s really coming down hard now as I type this. Heading back up to northern lower this afternoon so hopefully the snow stops so they can get the roads cleared up. I’m going to go out and measure after this snow band moves through but I’m thinking there’s 8-10” total on the ground around here right now.

More times then not Michigan and points east are left out of the maps posted and conversations which I completely understand because how big of area this forum covers and the amount of members from areas west of here. No offense to any of our members from areas south and west of IL but I do feel it would be nice to have a forum for just the Great Lakes area sometimes especially during the busy weather periods like what’s going on now. Me personally I usually only read posts from members from WI, IL, IN, OH and MI just because what’s happening weather wise out in other states really doesn’t effect MI often it seems.

You’re new area looks to be in a pretty good spot for some decent system snow the next week or so.

I had a number of friends and family ask me a couple months back my thoughts for this coming winter because they know I’m kinda into weather and trying to figure out longer range forecasts. I told them all the same thing that I expect a warm December because it’s extremely hard to have a cold December anymore and with the strong El Niño it’s going to be pretty hard to get any cold stretches at any point this winter. Unfortunately it looks like I’m going to be correct because I do enjoy cold and snow during the winter. With as strong as this El Niño was this Fall it was a pretty easy call honestly and I was pretty surprised when I saw anyone think otherwise and call for average temperatures this winter let alone colder then average. There are so many different people that put out long range forecasts on you tube and these type of forums and it’s taken me a few years of paying attention but I feel I have a pretty good idea of who to read and listen to and who not to. Long range forecasts are extremely difficult to get correct but I feel when we’re heading into a El Niño like this one it’s a pretty easy call for warmth.

I’m sure you’ve seen this map that NWS out of Gaylord has but this is their thoughts for the averages which I feel is as accurate as you’ll find anywhere for that area.

Congratulations and good luck with the move. That area averages closer to 60” a season I would bet. We take 27 up occasionally rather then I-75 when going back and forth to our place at Higgins and when going through that area they almost always have quite a bit more snow on the ground then areas just south of there. I feel the elevation there definitely helps compared to Clare and areas to the south. Houghton Lake averages mid 60’s out at the airport east of the lake but the average snowfall really changes fast as you go a little north and west because of the lake effect. Where our place is at on the north side of Higgins we average between 85-90 inches but you only have to go another 10 miles north and west to get into the 100”+ areas, lake effect and elevation play a huge role in who gets what snow wise around there.

Nice heavy wet all day snow today in northern lower MI, it’s been a decent start to the snow season for a lot of areas up here so far.

We just left my mom’s place a little north east of Lapeer, they have 3” to 3.5” easily there. Roads are bad with a few cars in ditches. We did see a few plow trucks out though so hopefully they’ll get the main roads cleaned up. Calling for some decent lake effect in northern MI the next couple days which isn’t unusual for this time of year. Many areas could see double digits by Tuesday.

Hope the models are on to something and we switch to a winter type pattern in a couple weeks and stay in it through the holiday’s, that would be great. Here in northern lower MI we don’t have any snow on the ground at this time which normally means it will be a cold Christmas period. I base this off of weather observation over the past 22 years of having a place up here and not weather forecasting so we’ll see what happens. Very rarely does a cold and white thanksgiving up here get followed by a cold and white Christmas it seems.