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Everything posted by Doinko

  1. We've not done that great since down here but I think we've definitely had more chances.
  2. 2016/2017 was the coldest winter in Portland since 1978-79 and 5th coldest on record. We had a 13" snowstorm in 8hrs that lasted for a week too
  3. Hard to bet against the Euro though I still think you'll do fine up there. I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see something good here too. Still 3 months of winter as well.
  4. I wouldn't mind a repeat but really hoping the Arctic air makes it farther south
  5. Surprised NWS is forecasting 37/22 here on Friday. I would definitely not mind that at all
  6. Will continue to track the lowering snow levels to determine whether snow is more likely in the Willamette Valley, but ultimately prepare for the coldest temperatures thus far this season, and possible snow. Well into the future, that cold air will continue to push westward filling the area with temperatures into the teens and twenties on Friday. -Muessle NWS Portland
  7. Even PDX somehow managed a freeze. 56/32 there with a -1.0 departure.
  8. That first trough has been trending consistently better and better
  9. What does the meteogram look like for Portland? That was a great run, around 4" for us all falling in the low 20s and high teens.
  10. Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder
  11. I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.
  12. I really hope the coming event involves both a Fraser River component and then a Gorge one to keep us cold. That was missing from 2021 which was slightly disappointing.
  13. NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile. Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However, given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0 temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow. Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side. Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF signal. -Muessle/TK
  14. Even though the Arctic air only made it here briefly, we still managed a subfreezing high which was great
  15. I hope a cold pool in the Columbia Basin is established keeping Portland freezing
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