TacomaWx

I’m sure if it got that cold the snow would probably be there too.

All very true. I’d rather get a 18 degrees high temp smashing the coldest max on record for the century up here than a foot of snow. I know many other people would take the big snow nothing wrong with that. I’ve averaged about 12” of snow IMBY roughly the last 7 winters. Legit record cold is so hard to come by.

I know it doesn’t always necessarily work this way but I’d trade more snow for colder. We’ve had so much snow the last few years anyways.

For western Washington atleast…if this is going to be a more regional event gotta make a lot more improvements in the next couple days.

Everything can be given back just as quickly as it’s taken away in this game.

Yeah, I am really hoping that we see something much better more on the scale of December 2021. No idea what’ll happen at all yet though! I just think atleast here up north we will see a little something at the worst. I am worried there will be a N/S cutoff of disappointment somewhere in the region which sucks.

We did have a little snow and a couple days in the mid 30s in January 2020. Overall that’s not terrible and better than nothing. IMO here in Western Washington north of OLM I expect we see at the very least something similar to that. Potentially more than that hopefully. Either way I am hoping for something much better than that.

Does your mom live out on the peninsula also?

This is definitely a different situation…little more confidence in this one than that model ride.

Yes that was gonna be a big one also…

All this is saying is that we’re still alive in the game at this point…could go either way. Normally though it would be the euro being the negative Nancy.

Kind of disappointing this is a strong N/S gradient run. Seeming like the regional stuff is seemingly disappearing.

Terrible run for sure. It’s over 100%

IIRC in the lead up to the late November/Early December 2022 and the bigger December 2022 events…we had no idea what was going to happen either.

lol he will be back by the end of the day probably…or when the euro comes out shortly.

Those both compared look pretty solid despite the models refining and watering things down a bit from some of the insane runs.

What hour is the cutoff for ensembles and switching to the OP runs? Like 72-96 hours?

Seems to be easily forgotten at the moment lol…but if it takes a step back we’re in big trouble

Certainly don’t help, but either way we’ve got 0 idea on what’s happening. Not a bust or lock yet!

Have a hard time imagining that detail completely going away at this point with how the models started picking up on it last night.

It’s still early for sure and everything could work out and turn around…but based on the models the regional potential has taken a huge hit. I sense a strong N/S gradient which is typical of what we’ve seen in recent years. I’d also say the top tier potential has taken a pretty big hit also.

Wow, went to bed at 9 last night thinking the euro and EPS would be unchanged and the gfs was completely wrong. Was willing to write that strong low messing everything up as a wonky gfs solution…but there’s some serious doubt about this event as a whole at this point. Although it’s definitely not over and there very well could still be some fun winter weather for atleast some people. Definitely a disappointing turn of events no matter how you look at it.

How the models got us feeling right now

Yup, everything can be given back as quickly as it was taken away especially this far out.

It just seems like typical gfs OP flailing. It’s not tracked as much when snow and cold aren’t a possibility in the runs…but how often do details massively change on the gfs with just standard rain events? It’s not exaggeration when people say it’s a horrible model. It’s just much more obvious when it’s under the scrutiny it is during an event like this.