ChiTownSnow

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band. About 10 miles south of you in Darien

Very hard for the national weather service to go against two major models 56 hours out + holiday and brutal cold. But I give them credit for de-emphasizing the snow amounts early on. A to least for Chicago

We may end up getting more out of this, than the current storm

Exactly they saw it ,but there was so much uncertainty still, They kept the headline which is probably smart anyway given the cold and wind. What made it even harder is it wasn't just the GFS. The euro was the first one to show the big dog and the euro holds a little bit more weight I think.

But this wasn't accurate at all. Based on what ended up happening. For the current storm: given the pattern the 1-2 ft was a very plausible outcome, that both the models and human forecasters saw as a real threat. In both cases, the models accurately "corrected" itself as time went on The lesson learned (again) is that the models are not as accurate as we want it to be more than four or five days out. Instead, it gives you an idea of the pattern and the potential and should be used that way. Even so, They are far better than human forecasting at that range (as the NWS wouldn't have done what they did) I think there was some red flags that NWS saw within 56-72 hours, but not enough to Trump the model forecast

Exactly.. anybody that says the models are worse now than they were before is dead wrong.. maybe in some cases, like this, the models sees potential, where previously it would have missed the potential, but the models today are for superior than the models 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago..etc

Yeah MSP was the winner with this. Who would have thought that 3 days ago That part of the system didn't require so much finesse and everything going correctly

It was for EVERYONE. Just at different levels of bust

I wouldn't trust those. Most member are clustered in the two to five range. A few crazy drunk members skew the mean.

Safe to say the east side of lake is lake enhanced. But it's also wrapping in moisture from Atlantic/gulf as it intensifies

Correct.. This is my thought too.

I think everyone on here would gladly take 8". Also = white Christmas with room to spare

As this pattern starts to set up after the 7th/8th, early snowpack may pay dividends for future systems

Beyond the 7th, I think it's going to depend how far south the confluence sets up, and subsequently storm track. Certainly central Wisconsin and similar lat are looking good.

Any snow from the 7th that we do get looks to stick around a while. Hopefully sets the stage