Andstorm

Why is that? i’ve noticed same and can’t identify a cause.

So what are we all thinking for chances of and/or strength of la niña by next winter. models seem to be holding steady in the minus .5-1 range, so maybe weak to moderate. I’ve said this before but this winter has been a helpful reminder that this stuff really does matter — the good and the bad. It would be fun going into a winter knowing we’re in business. And I’m not too disappointed about prospects of this spring being more warm and dry. Nothing more annoying than springs being dominated by patterns that we begged for in heart of winter.

So it sounds like while yes the polar vortex is in the process of breaking down, we really need the PNA to be in a negative phase (which it is not) for the right setup to emerge for major cold/snow threat in NW lowlands. That all seems fairly reasonable to me. Not sure why some are suggesting that’s so controversial but still learning the dynamics of this community and what’s real vs just friendly jabbing.

Interesting. Are these at all predictive this far out?

I’m not smart enough to follow all the SSW/MJO discussion, but just looking at teleconnections, it would appear at face value like we have a shot at blocking and colder air second half of february with both arctic oscillation and EPO going negative. But sounds like situation is much more nuanced.

Is this split showing up elsewhere?

I’m pretty resolved to winter going out with a whimper. I think it just comes with the territory of living in NW lowlands that we’ll occasionally endure a strong el niño winter every decade or so. My glass half full take is that we appear to possibly be headed for the rare strong el niño to moderate la niña transition over a single year. Compared to previous periods where it wasn’t uncommon for the span between la nina’s stretched out to five years or more, this situation could be a lot worse. Take out the relatively short-lived Jan arctic influx and this has been a very archetypal el niño winter. It’s a nice reminder that these things do matter, and our pessimism going into a strong el niño should be reversed going into a la niña (especially back to back, though I’m still unclear if there is any real scientific relevance to the sudden reversal that amplifies the weather effects). I just hope we see a good Nor’easter before the season is out. I miss following those from afar.

I hear a TON about sun angles around here as reason major snow events rarely occur after mid-Feb.

The cold stretch was undeniably memorable but overall it’s looking like a very el niño winter, which makes sense and was largely predictable. I kind of wish we in Portland would have avoided the measly 1.5 inch official snow total before the ice, for no other reason than to not have to hear all the local mets talk about how overdue Portland is for a no-snow winter. Whether we indeed fall back into la niña or stay on the cold side of neutral, there is reason to think next winter offers a much better setup.

playing a bit of catch up here. Are you suggesting a potentially cold/active pattern mid month for west or just CONUS generally?

I think we’ll finally get the upper level cold by early Feb. But surface temps look fairy seasonal.

For the record, I’m a huge fan of Mark and think he’s an extremely talented meteorologist. Best in our area by far. The point was that I think local experts like him are starting to recognize that February is a bit more dynamic than what some of the data suggests. Mark also correctly points out that in a geographically diverse region such as Portland’s, there can be major weather events that only impact areas of the city, a scenario that becomes more likely the deeper we get into February.

Yeah this event should be a salient reminder that models - especially the EURO can’t handle transitions out of low level cold. I just today got above 36 for first time in 8 days, and i’m in SE Portland not too far from downtown; not exactly in the heart of the gorge. My ice event Thursday was arguably just as bad as the Tuesday one and EURO wasn’t even close on it.

Isn’t that more of a mountain snow maker? cold air spends a lot of time over water.

In all fairness to Mark, he has since backed off his February shut off stance and has also retired his infamous “put a fork in winter” post, which was his typical mid Feb proclamation that winter was essentially over in lowlands. The data does suggest after mid-Feb major snow events are very rare around Portland. But I think last year proved they definitely can happen