hawkstwelve

Some decent precipitable water values feeding the storms down the I-5 corridor this morning. View map on CartoSky

Over two feet of rain NE of Uvalde, TX over the past 72 hours, including 12" over the past 24 hours. Looks like there is a flash flood emergency issued for there this morning. Crazy stuff. Hope everyone ends up safe. View map on CartoSky

Recent 24-hour precip highlighting the classic ring of fire setup around the expansive Central CONUS ridge. The NW flow corridor stretches all the way into northern New England, while monsoonal convection is wrapping around the western flank into Nevada and eastern Oregon. Pretty impressive. View map on CartoSky

Heads up: two issues from recent infrastructure work are fixed and recovering as of this morning. Recent precipitation (MRMS 6h/24h/72h) layers were unavailable for part of today but they're back as of now. Current Analysis temporarily shows a shorter history than usual. The full ~11-hour timeline rebuilds automatically over the next 12 hours as new analyses come in. Radar, satellite, and all forecast models were unaffected.

I was curious more about this so I had Claude do a deep-research dive on years with +QBO/+ENSO with a focus on the outcome for the US, specifically the PNW and Northern Plains. It's findings are attached for anyone curious. I did not check these findings on my own so take that for what it's worth. Overall, there isn't a very clear indication one way or the other. Some years were snowy, others not so much. One interesting finding - these two regions are among the most clear, reliabily consistent signals for +ENSO outcomes (not accounting for the +QBO) in the entirety of the US and it's not a particularly pleasant picture. Although given how the last few La Nina winters have shaped up out here, which is generally frustrating, I'm willing to take any chances. qbo_el_nino_pnw_nplains_winters.md

Yup. I'd be curious to see in years where we have +QBO and strong +ENSO which factor ultimately has a stronger influence on the polar vortex and what those years tended to turn out like. Hopefully the fact that this year will be possibly a historically strong El Nino will help counter the +QBO a bit better than it might otherwise. Of course, SSWs are only half the equation and we have seen years where those effects don't always translate to favorable blocking in the troposphere. So, as always, who knows except mother nature herself.

Interesting read on ENSO state and upcoming winter patterns. Some good stuff in here. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027-fa/

Quick CartoSky beta update. I’ve pushed quite a few improvements and features over the last couple weeks. Biggest additions: Added ensemble meteograms, including mean and per-member charts Added ensemble percentile and probability maps Added GIF export for both forecast-hour animations and run-to-run trends Redesigned the share modal to make image/GIF/link sharing easier, including options that do not require a CartoSky account or TWF integration Added a new Today tab on the Forecast page with additional current-day forecast details, recent observed precip, etc. Added roads to the basemap for better map context and visibility Improved loading/performance across the viewer, including faster animation behavior Fixed several comparison tool logic issues in both split and difference modes Made a lot of behind the scenes pipeline improvements to improve efficiency and reliability With these additions a good chunk of the OP roadmap is now live. Next items up will be replacing NAM with RRFS (once upstream data feed from NOAA is reliably available), adding AIFS ensembles, expanding meteogram charts and percentile/probability maps to additional variables, exploring Skew-T diagrams, adding additional items on the Climate page, and refining all the new features since beta launch. Some example screenshots below: Thanks to those that have used the site and provided feedback - some of the stuff added since beta was a direct result of recommendations from all of you. As always, additional feedback is welcome. If anything looks off, feels slow, or behaves weirdly, let me know.

Some pretty large differences between the 00z EPS and GEFS for long range temps east of the Rockies, mainly owing to differences in ridge axis. Both have the base position near the 4 corners but EPS extends the axis to the NNE while the GEFS has the axis going into the NW. It'll be interesting to see which solution wins out. View map on CartoSky

USA! USA! USA! C'MON!!!!!!

Reports of funnel clouds in some nearby showers. Looking like a chance for showers/thunderstorms tonight but hopefully they stay off to the south and east. Hope everyone has a very fun and safe 4th!

Heads up: I'm going to be doing some fairly large refactoring of the backend pipeline in order to better support ensemble members and associated meteograms, among other things. This may cause some sporadic issues over the next 24-48 hours as I get any bugs ironed out.

Added model charts/meteograms to the Forecast page. This includes a compare mode, for comparing ECMWF/GFS/AIFS/NBM for a searched location, as well as a model detail mode, for getting data from a particular model. Please let me know if you run into any issues with this new feature set. Ensemble charts are up next but first I'll be taking a breather for a few days to take my sons camping. Ensemble work will begin next week!

Lots of ongoing development: Added a side-by-side comparison tool directly from the map viewer Added a difference mode inside the comparison tool, making it easier to see deltas between models, variables, and run times Added NWS warnings to the radar product Expanded satellite products with Mid-Level Water Vapor, Upper-Level WV, and Visible bands Expanded SPC outlook support to days 4-8 when available Expanded CPC outlook support to week 3-4, monthly, and three month Added a live radar preview card to Forecast page Refactored the city value pipeline; many more cities now show corresponding values, including higher zoom levels Improved screenshot generation speed and added additional resiliency so shares are less likely to fail or capture incomplete frames Still on deck: meteograms, GIF/trend export, additional model support, and more screenshot improvements. The Forecast page is being expanded into a fuller analysis hub - model charts, consensus tools, and probability products are all planned. This work will take a while but as long as my server resources can support it, I'm looking forward to getting this built out. Side note: the new comparison tool (both side-by-side and difference modes) is still undergoing polish, logic, and layout improvements, especially on mobile/tablet. Please let me know if you run into anything that isn't working right.

Yeah, that's a part of it. I think another aspect is different forecast hour cadences between models. HRRR, for example, has hourly forecast increments, while GFS is 3-hourly through 240 and then 6-hourly after that, so switching models does not always have a clean 1:1 forecast hour match. I had done some work to help alleviate this issue where it should preserve the valid time as closely as possible when switching models, then fall back to nearest available forecast hour when there isn't an exact match (with accompanying toast notification). But if it's still jumping around more than expected that's definitely something I'll work to tighten up. And I appreciate the offer. Always open to any help. The repo is public here. Feel free to poke around, open an issue, or submit a PR if you spot something you want to tackle. I'm currently working on refactoring the city value pipeline, adding to the new Climate page (thanks to @SeattleSmokeLayerFan for the suggestion), and ironing out the new comparison tool (especially on mobile).