hlcater

Need the GFS to come on board. Still warm and SE relative to the ensembles, NAM, euro etc.

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

12z EPS

Big cluster of members near Hannibal likely bring the goods here.

This is likely to be the best storm of the season here despite the 3-4 hr dry period. The defo zone quickly made up for that and with 1-2 hours of snow left, will likely finish with 6-7". About in line with the model consensus. Nice to break the trend of events falling short of expectations this winter.

IC area is closing in on 9-10" and Waterloo is reporting 2-2.5"; hell of a gradient and CR looks to have wound up just barely on the right side

Eyeballing close to 6”. This band that’s been over me for the past 2 hours or so is really delivering the goods

Expecting to end right near 6" with a measurement of about 4.5" right now and probably another 1.5-2" on the way.

18z so far looking better than 12z

I see we are doing the T24 trend into the toilet

This is looking like a nice one.

Maybe just maybe we can crack 6" on this one.

Cant dislike the 00z suite for E IA tonight. 60 hours to go.

The airport is likely higher because they do hourly measurements negating compaction/melting.

I’ve got maybe 1.5”

WSW issued 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch. Up to a tenth of an inch of sleet is also
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of heavier snowfall is possible but
  the location of the band is uncertain at this time.

21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now.

I'm not. Things could always be worse, but it is kind of a pet peeve. Though now the snow band is so narrow that you're riding the edge regardless.

I swear CR rides the edge in every. single. event.

Have exactly zero confidence in this storm due to the incredibly marginal thermos. 

Fast asleep rn

All the NAM derivatives are crazy north. Just don’t think this pans out well here but we’ll see I guess

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Assuming we get a bit Friday and again Saturday, I may end up with six consecutive 0.5-1.3" snows.  Unfortunately, the fact is our snow climate sucks.  It's a nickel/dimer climate and it always will be.  Ten variables have to align perfectly just to get 6".

I've got exactly 1 event down over 3" so far this year. Pathetic.

Getting close on being time to punt for those south of 20. With the trends tonight its looking like this might be ANOTHER 1" snow.... yay.

Initial call for CR: 2”.

NAM going north

Way north

HRRR way up in N IA.

Now this is a special kind of pain

Lol what a p-type nightmare. Though W/S IA are switching over fast.

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Rain/snow mix down by my house. Radar is so impressive too. If only it were a degree or two colder. 

Bright banding due to the melting layer. If it were colder the returns would be much more typical.