hlcater

Freezing level is dropping on DMX. The afternoon runs had kept Des Moines as rain through 00z and CR as rain until 01-02z. You probably wont see 6", but 3-4" is very possible for you I think. Still think 2-3" is reasonable here.

The HRRR, RAP, ARW and NSSL are on the southern side of guidance.

Trend on guidance tonight has been to miss CR by… checks notes…. 10 miles. Lol.

Has a northward bias at longer ranges. Not very useful.

Not super confident on this one here right now. Think a rain/snow mix results in 1-2" of slush, if that. Need the system as a whole to track further SE for us. Especially with such a marginal airmass.

Thats what I was thinking when I felt the snow last night. I picked some up and it was very grainy and dense and was like there is no way this is more than 10:1.

2.2" from the first round marks a slight overperformance compared to guidance.

Looking at the guidance tonight, receiving most of our snow from FGEN and not the primary low may end up being a blessing in disguise.

Those of us in eastern Iowa need the trough to go neg tilt faster in order to cash in on a decent storm. Unfortunately that has not been the trend over the past few runs. A scenario where those north, west, east, and south do better than we do is definitely on the table, which would really suck.

Loving the forecast for here. Solid floor of 3-5" with gusty winds even if the big low fails to deliver this far west. However, a shot at something more if this trends just right. Regionally, if not nationally, impactful storm trending to a near certainty at this point though.

flakes are giant in Iowa City right now. Probably 1.5"/hr rates, though snow at this intensity appears as if it will be fairly brief I have 1.5" atm.

Much needed after this year's slow winter. Just shy of 3" in IC. IMG_7011.MOV IMG_7012.MOV

That band should propagate this way and bring decent snows with it. Looking forward to it. About a half inch so far in IC.

Think our odds in E IA are somewhat better with this one compared to the last storm. But that doesn't mean they're good...

That EPS is interesting. Barely resembles the operational

Yea I looked at the stats earlier. That’s what official obs say.

Just gonna throw a reminder in here that it has been since April 1973 since it last snowed 12” in Cedar Rapids and while it may snow with this system, that is a statistic that should continue.

People in NE/IA should not lose sleep trying to track a storm that is almost certainly not ours. Yea it could theoretically come this far north, but given the players on the field, it would be tremendously difficult to do so. Primarily we'd need the northern stream to weaken such that the cold front in behind that system doesn't advance quite so far south. Or the energy in the west needs to eject faster than it is currently on the models. Neither of which have been the trend today. I'd love this to come north as much as anyone, but it's time to be realistic.

lol that control is 10:1

Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here.

I’m 80% confident this is a KC-DTW special. Iowa likely sees snow, but not a lot.

This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.

Lol I wish.

An average of 25 measurements in the yard (as old snow is of significantly different consistency) of 6.4"

Good rates having trouble overspreading CR. 6” seems like the best bet.