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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. Report from family in Hiawatha that they’ve gone to all snow. Shouldn’t be long now.
  2. Well if you and I are hearing the same thing, we're probably not imagining it lol. My guess is there's some sleet mixed in.
  3. Precip currently is 99% rain, but I am hearing the occasional ping against the window.
  4. That deformation zone is also higher ratio stuff. Profile should yield ratios of 10-12:1 for us on the back side. 7-8:1 this evening. Though not sure what'd we'd see in terms of flake size there. Not really a lot of lift and DGZ saturation starts to decouple about half way through.
  5. As I outlined above, the GFS is likely to be right for the wrong reasons. It can be a good model and but one thing it is consistently bad at is handing marginal temp scenarios. The way things are panning out make it look right when it isn’t necessarily.
  6. Deformation band is our wild card. The models that have it are the ones that are generally more robust in E IA.
  7. GFS will likely end up being right but for the wrong reasons. The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.
  8. Man the 00z models are warm. Gonna need to lower my Iowa City call to 2".
  9. A well advertised longwave trough should amplify and swing into the southwest early next week. As this wave goes neg tilt and lifts into the midwest, it seems probable that a wound up surface low will develop somewhere in the high plains and lift northeast with it. Current forecast models generally cut this pretty hard and, if I had to guess, this is probably a NE/NW IA/MN show right now. But it currently looks as if this system is likely to bring significant winter weather to someone. System is still a good 7 days out and there are significant timing differences between the EC/GFS, but has had quite a lot of support on guidance over the past 3-4 days, enough that starting a thread for it may be justified.
  10. The NAM is a good 2 degrees warmer aloft relative to the rest of guidance. It's an outlier. Though I tend to like the NAM for marginal temp situations, it may be a bit too aggressive with the warm air aloft here.
  11. One thing that could be working against them is precipitation intensity. Though I dont know how CAMs would overlook something like that. You'd just have to hope that they're underdoing evaporative cooling and other dynamic processes. If this comes in hot and convective, my guess is things are more likely to change to snow earlier than later. I'm gonna hold at my 3" call for IC. I'd also like to add that one more wild card is how much snow exists in the deformation zone on the back side? Some models are more aggressive than others here.
  12. In this instance, I'm gonna side with the CAMs, every time.
  13. The WRFs appear to be faster, which in this scenario, makes all the difference. A slower system likely means more snow for Iowa
  14. WRF suite is warm and has rain to CR/IC to start. Gonna place my initial call for IC at a conservative 3" to account for the possibility that the initial band is rain for us.
  15. More of a neutral tilt closed low aloft. Starts negative in the 4 corners, then closes off.
  16. Yea this looks like a very hard cutter. Only way it wont be is if the surface low weakens significantly, or the block over hudson bay isnt so quick to translate east.
  17. I'd also like to say that you might want to pay particular attention to the NAM as it gets in range as it does well with these marginal temp/evap cooling dependent snow systems.
  18. As far as IC goes, thinking the best snow will be a bit to the northeast of me. I'd like where I was sitting if I were along hwy 20.
  19. now if only CR could get it's 12" storm while Iowa has the hot hand. That'd be great.
  20. This storm pushed my measuring location in Hiawatha to 31.4" on the year. Someone in Iowa could crack 55-60" before the 1st week of February is out if the two big storms in the long range end up playing out favorably.
  21. 6.8 seems to do relatively well with the CR consensus of about 6" anyways. I saw a couple 8s on the north side this morning, but I'm not super confident in the reliability of those.
  22. The GFS will be too warm. The only way this rains on Iowa is if the low makes its way further north than modeled. The colder models have the best handle right now.
  23. Took an average of 7.6" in downtown IC. Family measured 6.8" in northern Hiawatha. CR was the local screw zone for this.
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