StormchaserChuck1

A lot of the warmth this May in PNW is from developing El Nino, just like the "cooler near average trend" of the last 10 years have been because of 7/10 La Nina's. It's middle ground, but if you smooth out ENSO it's a slight warming trend, which I'd argue is happening to every season now.

He just compares one season to another season. It doesn't have an underlining point because one season does not take anything away from another season - by constantly pointing out "how we are not as warm as 2013-2024" all he's doing is saying over and over that it's been very warm over the past 11 years.

March 2026 kind of blends the Summer warmth in the SW with other seasons DJF 24-25 and 25-26 in Phoenix blew away all other years for 1 and 2 all time.

This May has a lot to do with the developing El Nino pattern. But it's going to be pretty far ahead for departures so I don't know if it's a point against the underlining warming

I saw trees started leafing in the area up to a month early. Must look like mid Summer out there in the snow!

New ECMWF seasonal going crazy with El Nino

Do you crave 30s in March?

Denver is in the 60s mid Winter then this happens every May lol

Going to be a warm one today

0z EPS I see 2 days of 107F in Las Vegas as the max. It's ensemble mean, so 110 isn't out of the question.

Another big ridge coming to the West Coast. Phoenix-Las Vegas might set daily records again.

Nice picture

If it weren't for La Nina prevalence over the last 27 years, global temperature would be higher right now. Watch it go more exponential as the number of Nino's and Nina's even out over the next 25 years.

No. It's raw ENSO forcing

A little weaker correlation in the Summer months The last image is average mean departure. 2nd image is correlation % for above or below average (1.0 is 100%, 0.5 is 75%, Seattle at +0.3 has a ~65% chance of being above average - no global warming considered).