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    University of Iowa Graduate. Love winter but enjoy vacations in Florida

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  1. Consistent light snow all morning. Wintry scene out there. Around 1.5 on the ground.
  2. LOT added the next row of counties to the south to the WWA . 2-5 forecasted
  3. Under a good band now. Huge flakes. 22 degrees and Saturday snow. love it
  4. Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching. While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM. This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.
  5. NAM did a great job. looks great out there. next 2 weeks look fun!
  6. LOT issuing WWA. Bumped totals a little further north. Now going with 2-4 from Dixon into the suburbs
  7. Would love for this map to verify.
  8. Maybe LOT is buying into the GFS Signal in model guidance remains mixed regarding the evolution of a Saturday night - Sunday disturbance, but seemingly trending towards some higher snow chances in our region. A very deep upper trough is slated to progress east across the central CONUS and Great Lakes region and currently looks progressive with an overall positive tilt. It`s certainly looking cold enough aloft to foster pockets of elevated instability and forcing will be in plentiful supply--if only for a brief period. Will be a period to watch since it looks like surface temps would be receptive to snow accumulations and moisture content will be elevated owing to the Pacific origin of the southern stream segment.
  9. Some Hope from LOT afternoon update Looking beyond day 7, the ensemble guidance has been consistently pointing toward there finally being a shake-up in the remarkably mild pattern we`ve been in to a more seasonable and probably still active look, so *maybe* some more appreciable snow threats into late January.
  10. LOT had an update at 11am. at that time noted they were leaning towards warnings being issued For the Winter Storm Watch, made changes to add some temporal detail to the start times across the area per most recent trends in the model guidance. A more progressive trend overall with the system has now moved up the start of likely dangerous travel conditions into the daytime on Thursday. This is tied to a faster progression of a powerful Arctic front, combined with falling snow, and crashing temperatures. To set things up for the (likely) warning issuance phase, segmented out the Winter Storm Watch based on the general consensus of the timing of the Arctic front passage.
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