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someweatherdude

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  1. You can't make this shi* up. I give up. KC snow drought continues. I'm out. I don't have anything nice to say, so I'm done saying anything. Good luck to everyone else (except those in Des Moines).
  2. Two things. 1. I said it back in December and I’m going to double down. KC is looking at single digit snowfall totals for 2021-22. The universe has gone out of its way this year to make snow miss us. And there’s nothing in the foreseeable future to suggest that’s going to change. What energy does come near us consistently fizzles out. 2. This year has eroded much of my already-reticent belief in the LRC. December looked nothing like October. Using the LRC, Gary predicted above average snowfall for KC and an active severe weather season this spring. The snowfall isn’t panning out, and he recently started talking about drought. If the LRC can accurately predict upper air and pressure patterns, but can’t predict actual surface weather, I don’t see it being useful for anyone outside of academics in our lifetime. The lame winter in KC this year is frustrating but it’s not the only reason for my growing doubts about the LRC. The doubt comes from the fact that whatever cycle there may be, that cycle isn’t making weather any more predictable for a given spot at a given time. It’s a shame because I like Gary. And I’d like the LRC to be a useful tool.
  3. I seriously can't remember the last time a true Panhandle Hook happened, and especially one that benefitted KC. I have zero confidence that it will happen (not because of you, Tom. Just because I don't trust models, etc.) But it would certainly be nice to get reacquainted with that type of system.
  4. I really hope you're right. I will say that things are looking more promising. Last year, KC managed to be both north and south of the above normal snowfall. The cold pushed so far south in February, that we missed the heavier snow to our south. Prior to that time, the snow was mostly up in Nebraska and Iowa. Especially around Omaha and Des Moines, which had much AN snowfall. Hopefully this year, we can get some payback for being neglected during the best parts of last year.
  5. FWIW, the GFS got the January 5 "storm" around these parts pretty much spot on from several days out (though it did take it a while to catch on to the idea of something happening in the first place). All of the mesoscale models were too strong and too far north for the most part. The European was also generally too far north. Just when I think it's time to trash a model for good, it bests it's competitors. It's like they say in football ... on any given Sunday. Some models may have a better track record, but for any specific weather event, you just don't know which one is going to perform better.
  6. I stand corrected. This will surely happen, right? Looks like MLK day will be a snow day.
  7. I actually just found something. Not sure if it's referring to the first inch or just the first measurable. But it says January 21, 1980 was our latest first snow. Lowest season total is 3.9 during 2011-2012 -- my first winter back in KC after living in Chicago. Based on current forecasts and the LRC, I could very well make it to January 21st without a decent snowfall. Even if that technically doesn't break the record, it's still pretty darn bad. https://fox4kc.com/weather/when-will-we-see-snow-in-kansas-city/
  8. Do you know where to look to find KC's latest 1-inch snowfall? I know KCI got more than an inch over the holidays. So officially, we have our inch. But IMBY, we have yet to get an inch. I've googled it, but can't find it.
  9. Here's a picture to put it in perspective. The yellow areas recently got, or are forecasted by the NAM to get, more than 2 inches of snow (2 inches isn't all that much to ask). The orange area is predicted by the NAM to get 4* inches. I live pretty close to Olathe on the SW side of the city.
  10. HRR still better than the NAM, but it went south too. Something in the data definitely pushed things south since this afternoon. I guess the cold dry air moving in from the north? Which is funny because that didn't hurt Iowa last week when they got 6+ inches. This area can't win for losing.
  11. Agreed. But if Miami County, KS gets 6 inches, and I get 1 inch or less, I'm going to lose it. I mean, it would be difficult to be in a worse spot in the entire Midwest for barely missing snow. If it was just the NAM going south a little bit, I wouldn't be so nervous. But the HRW models did the same thing.
  12. If the 00z NAM ends up being correct, I will have missed both of KC's "snowstorms" by about 30 miles in each direction. The airport got 2.2 inches last week, while I got a dusting. KCI is 30 miles north of me. The NAM says that about 25 miles south of me is supposed to get 6 inches of snow tomorrow night while I get a dusting. So even within the KC metro region, I may end up being right in between the two measurable snows. Edit: The other mesoscale models look to be following suit with pushing the snow south of the KC metro. So if you ever said to yourself, "dang, that guy is always so negative." Now you know why.
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