ChicagoToSeattle

Whatever blew through Seattle today was intense -- not your typical PNW storm. We had lightning and ominous clouds (like a Midwest storm) if that's what is coming then I could see an intense storm on the horizon. Hopefully enough to break the Chicago snowfall record

With the amount of ice on Lake Michigan, it will be a cruel Spring for many in the city and near the lake suburbs. March, April and May all have prevailing winds from the Northeast. That's why you'll get days in the 40's in the loop and 60s in the Western suburbs. This year inevitably will be worse as the lake is certain to be in the 30s come April. That's mighty cold and is the reason why I rate Spring in Chicago as my least favorite season (2012 being the once in a lifetime exception) Two years ago, it was 68 on 3/6 and we hit the 80s on eight different days -- crazy

Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels. There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff.

As I've gained to appreciate via Tom's advocacy for the LRC, I must say that the modeling and tracking of this system seems matched up well with the early January storm that socked Chicago.

here's what Skilling said "Contradictory indications frm models Sun. Model jet stream structure fcst suggests sending snow south is wrong. We're sticking wi snow Sun"

Looks like the ORD high was 31, that means the potential exists for a 17 day streak of below freezing when it finally warms up next Monday.

PS-- the model handling aside from the NAM for this one was whack. The GGEM early in sniffed one out but otherwise the NAM was the only one to be close. Will be interesting to do a post-mortem to understand why they had this one so off?

You know it's a great snow year when ORD hits the monthly snow averages by the 5th of a month. Jealous that the winter I move away is the winter that resembles the old school winters I remember well. Onward to 90 inches

thanks! I recall reading about this a couple of years ago on the Accuweather boards. My memory was that it has validity but it was way off in the 2011-12 winter?

quick question -- What is the LRC?

I was thinking the same thing -- any time the east coast ridge pops, the models take a while to understand the strength of the high. It's a classic pattern for the last several years with some exceptions such as the GHD Blizzard. The Euro had a bead on that one nearly a week out

here you go -- RANK AMOUNT MONTH AND YEAR --------------------------------- 1) 42.5" JANUARY 1918 2) 40.4" JANUARY 1979 3) 33.3" DECEMBER 1951 *4) 33.1" JANUARY 2014 5) 32.3" JANUARY 1978

48.2 for season January is 4th snowiest month all time

does anyone know the estimates for how deep and far the snow cover will be at this time? That can be a good indicator for tracking how far north the low will track

Yikes, those are "barbarically" cold temps as Skilling likes to say. Speaking of Lake Michigan, here's the ice coverage as of a couple of days ago. As this winter progresses, the lake snow machine may start slowing down due to ice. Lake Erie is already at a point where lake effect is basically zilch. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/lice_00%20_7_.gif