Dendrite

Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you? Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature? I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months. The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together.

As I recall, some of the big no-show SW monsoons have occurred with El Nino. The idea has been that the enhanced subtropical jet shears off the northward flow of subtropical moisture. I don't expect this to be a record-setting EN, so I guess that anything is still possible. I am not betting on a big monsoon this year however. Newbie, whatever...