snow_wizard

This pattern is just an absolute turd sandwich.  Now the warm mins are keeping the daily averages above normal and the mountains continue to hemorrhage snow pack.

The ENSO plunge is really underway now.  Major cold upwelling along the coast of South America spreading westward.

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

The ground here isn't a god*mn sponge 

Conflicting reports!

12 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

77 sounds amazing to me.

I'm sure you've had a few like that this year already.

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fascinating

https://www.centraloregondaily.com/little-did-i-know/central-oregon-is-a-giant-sponge-so-why-has-it-been-in-a-drought-for/article_504e7044-e252-11ee-b77d-ab6170ee9ccf.html?fbclid=IwAR2mIPBRMcvhgptUDpdFwkCHd1Vtq4lnAkqF6zY3OB69De8Ulo6qP2PxGcQ

I don't think explains the drought declaration though.  Drought is based on how much precip actually falls.

Wow!  I was looking through the record highs for SEA for March and April and had totally forgotten about the heat blast in April 2016.  4 consecutive 80+ with a peak of 89 on the 18th.  That could be as nuts as June 2021 for the date.

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am glad to hear this! Not bad in the longer range though!

The GFS just has fits when there is a low off to the SW when a trough is evolving.

59 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX up to 76 as of 4pm. SEA also up to 70. Woodland leading the way at 77!  

Such incredible uniformity.

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

73. Yowzers 

Incredible day.  Just so totally comfortable outside.  Some places could actually drop into the 30s again tonight though.

72/36 IMBY today.

Looks like the GFS is trying to overcomplicate the trough evolution next week.  One of the warmest outliers on the ensemble.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we have almost no water issues since 2014-15.  

Yup.  OR has been a much different story of course.

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Pretty nice day up on Mount St Helens in terms of views, although terrible for everything else. 40 degrees at the summit at 8:20am, absolutely no refreeze of snow. Not a cloud in the sky, although there was so much blowing snow at times that the visibility would get low, mountain-forecast was calling for 15mph gusts which was absolute BS, it was gusting 30-40MPH at times. Overall a great day though.

You certainly do get around!

Good point about the mins not getting cold enough for a refreeze at night.  That is going to be really bad for allowing snow loss this weekend.

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think Mt Si is higher than the highest peak in the Oregon coast range. Yet it has no snow. 

It does have snow.  The view in Tim's pic is misleading.  Tim has explained why that mountains looks that way before.

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is this some sort of joke?

I was obviously talking about WA.  You can look at the records yourself.  We did have a dry period last year, but in the end even it ended up normal.  All others quite wet.

The EPS continues to have the "prettiest" trough with the upcoming cool down.  The other models get pretty messy with it.

BTW....on the ENSO front it should be noted the CFS picked up on the coming Nina way sooner than the ECMWF.  CFS is very decent on ENSO.

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

Washington Cascades did decently during the the first two Ninas that skunked Oregon with dry winters. Must've been due for them to see that.

No doubt.  We were due for a tougher water year up here.  It's been years since we haven't had an excess.

1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Find a really cheap home, 'cause it will end up with smashed windows this year.. 

Arkansas is probably cheap in general.

45 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Wow, only 55 here after a low of 42. Climbing steadily since sunrise. 

61/36 here so far.  From what I've seen Tacoma isn't good for the big diurnal spreads.  McChord is a lot better though.

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We don't need a massive crash.   I am holding out hope for cold neutral or weak Nina. 

I agree to some extent.  I think strong might be better for cool summer prospects though.

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wield that mountain looks snow free.  

Wield?

A lot of that is because the mountain is steep and isolated.  The backside has a lot of snow, and even that face has it under the trees.  Also....this just hasn't been a good year for snow in this general area.

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In other news... Our turkey population is exploding up here. Long timers say they had never seen turkey up here until a couple years ago. The Willamette Valley has insane numbers of turkey, I've even seen them in downtown and north Salem recently. What's the turkey situation like up in W. Washington? 

None in this area.  There are a lot east of the Cascades.

Managed to drop to 36 here this morning.  Could be working on a really good average min for the month the way it looks right now.

The models are still really struggling with the details on upcoming cool period, but it looks solid no matter what.

Then there's this.

Wow!  This ENSO crash is about to get real.  There has already been a notable drop in all of the regions over the past week or two.  I'm thinking it at least goes moderate based on this.