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snow_wizard

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Everything posted by snow_wizard

  1. Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front.
  2. The general cold pattern and lowland snow in places. I'm not talking about fine details. Relax...you will have snow tonight. You trust the models way too much. In fact even they are insistent we will have some. This is a good scenario for this area to over perform.
  3. I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part.
  4. A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.
  5. At times like this look at the big picture and the ensembles. I just looked at the Canadian ensemble and it has a large number of excellent members for week 2. The analog composites and index forecasts are useful also. Things have mostly been breaking our way in the end lately.
  6. In all fairness things have really starting falling into place for us now. Just had a cold December and January is going to be cold also. The patterns have an old time feel to them all of a sudden. The solar aspect may be kicking in after one very low cycle under our belts and then the recent very quiet conditions.
  7. If this is all still just the appetizer I'm good with that. Some winters have behaved like this in the past. The ultimate payoff is almost always very good.
  8. We will be fine. Look at the index forecasts. Any ridge over the NW would be unable to last for more than a day or two with that. The models show a quick hitting cold wave in the east and then above normal heights again. The models are struggling right now. Ensembles are the way to go.
  9. That with dps in the 20s should preserve the snow pretty well I would think. I think Tim takes a perverse pleasure in knowing he will have good snow cover no matter what and then making the case nobody else will.
  10. Absolutely. The EPO and PNA both being tanked is a great recipe for us. As strong an anti ridge signature as you could ever want for the NW. In fact the index forecasts are as good as they were when the models were orgasmic. The analog compotes also are. Maybe something to that?
  11. I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow. Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle. It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry. FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.
  12. I just can't believe the gnashing of teeth going on about progs a week out in such a complex pattern. The chances for a good outcome are still high IMO. The models have consistently put too much emphasis on offshore cutoff lows this season. We saw that a while back with the event that is about to unfold. As long as the blocking structure is there we're in business.
  13. A radar malfunction over the next 24 hours would really drive some people over the edge I bet.
  14. Well...I'm done on here today. I'm going to enjoy my snow tonight and will be back tomorrow. Just not worth putting up with all the negativity.
  15. The GFS ensemble is clearly showing another cold shot around the 11th now. A mean of -8. Pretty similar to the ECMWF ensemble on the 0z. I bet the 12z ECMWF ensemble shows the same. Not that anyone will pay attention to this anyway, because I know the sky is falling.
  16. The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us. Oh yes...the ECMWF drop 850s to -13 at hour 48. I have no idea how people can ruin the fun when we are going to have snow within 24 hours followed by an Arctic outbreak. I was hoping to come on here and have fun today.
  17. The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us.
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