TT-SEA

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Huh? No I wasn’t. Unless it was an in-jest comment about a single long range model run.  

It was just one comment and not exactly long range... it was a week out.   Just to troll us.   

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Has to be tough seeing a Nina coming. 

Yes... Nina summers have been so horrible lately.  And Nina winters are often as good if not better than Ninos.   Doesn't seem to matter much.   

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

they're smarter than you, don't take it personally

I hope so!  

North wind has been gusting to 30 mph at SEA this afternoon.    Almost no wind out here... North Bend got up to 68.   The difference in what this afternoon felt like between SEA and NB had to be pretty significant.   68 with almost no wind feels quite warm.   64 with a north wind gusting to 30 mph likely feels quite chilly.    Being blocked from the north wind out here is really nice because that is predominant direction on our really nice days.  

Not sure what NOAA is seeing... 

Man it's gorgeous out.   Piercing blue sky and pleasant temp.   Perfect April weather.

A week ago Phil was talking about this period being a Jesse-tastic pattern.    Turns out it's a pattern almost everyone loves.

12Z EPS is not even wetter than normal over the next 15 days.

12Z ECMWF shows only .47 in Seattle and .28 in Portland over next 10 days.   Not exactly crazy wet.

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2.

If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.

ECMWF looks somewhat similar but not real wet.   Looks like we won't be missing any warm, sunny weather while we are gone.    Need it to be stormy starting next Wednesday!

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 12z CMC would put any drought worries to bed.

Yes... this would solve everything. 

Just now, Phil said:

Shouldn’t you be sipping martinis on the beach right now?  

Next week.

57 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

A lot of good can happen in May/June, we could be building the snowpack rather than melting it, and that would make a huge posotive difference on the snowpack.

True.

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dry, exacerbate the drought, YAY!

If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.

10 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hear you.  Irrational?  Yes, but I'm in the same boat and feel the same irrational fear.  I need to fly to South Carolina to see my mom.  I need to fly Alaska so I can use miles for the ticket but they are "proudly all Boeing" once again, and I'll inevitably be on a -900 or -900ER.  Chances of something happening are somewhere between slim and none, leaning heavily towards none, but I would really love to do that flight on an Airbus.

 

Another irrational fear situation that ended up setting off serious alarm bells in my head.  I was on a flight about 2-3 or so years after 9/11 and am almost certain I was on a "test" flight for a certain terrorist organization.    My wife picked up on it too, and we discussed what we would do.  Flight Attendants were switched on too, and I could tell they were giving those guys extra attention.  A lot of non-verbal communication between the crew when it came to these guys.  They tried to congregate in the fwd and aft galley areas a couple of times and were quickly sent back to their seats. 

 

Pretty much zero chance they were going to do anything, but I was not going to take any chances.

It was kind of chilling to be having in a meeting a month or so later with our Sales VP, and hear him share similar stories of what I saw through his conversations with Airline executives.  Then a few months later I got pulled into a meeting at work to learn about a few other things they were doing to get a 9/11 v2.0.  We were being approached to develop "countermeasures" for the things they were trying.

 

Doing the same thing next week flying to Charleston with only one real option from SEA.   Tried to put it out of my mind but you just increased my anxiety again.  

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

June 2022 was extremely wet through the first three weeks of.the month though. 

For the first 20 days of June 2022 there was only one day here without rain and only 2 days at SEA with 0.00 for the day.   But for the first 10 days of the month it was a warm, humid rain.     

Then it only rained on 5 days from June 20 - October 20.  

06Z GFS was not so emphatic about a major pattern change... looks more variable like we have been seeing lately.   

EPS also looks variable and seems to be shifting the focus more to the south with the troughing next week.   I am sure there will be some rain events over the next couple of weeks though.  

Beautiful day for the Mariners in Seattle...

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is going with a much troughier solution later next week... less focus on CA and more on the PNW.  This makes sense from a climo perspective at this time of year but we have seen the models do this recently only to move it back to CA as it gets closer.    Personally I would love for next week and the weekend to be stormy because we will be in Charleston.   I would hate to miss out on a warm period here.    

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

If that isn’t a J***e pattern on the LR GFS then I don’t know what is.

It will inevitably change or get watered down.  

Beautiful morning... coming into NB from PT appointment earlier.

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

So I actually read about that yesterday.  Apparently, it's because the urban areas have larger storage facilities for water and can plan accordingly pretty far in advance.

The non-urban core is more dependent on consistent snow runoff due to having less storage.

As I mentioned yesterday... the Seattle area gets its water supply from the Chester Morse Reservoir and its at 100% of normal which is almost always the case regardless of the weather since we have so much cushion out here.  

1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

Brr 28 and heavy frost this morning hopefully my garden survives. 

Not a good idea to plant the garden before late April.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Almost 2 years worth of rain in Dubai today.

Imagine if North Bend saw 200” of rain in a day.

 

The scaling does not work like that.  

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Tim has bounced back to team blue. 

I would probably vote for Joe Biden in a nursing home not knowing his own name over a second-term lunatic on a vendetta tour.  Listening to Trump makes my ears bleed.   His buffoonery is a total insult to literally everyone's intelligence.  And not for any political reasons.     

If you could roll back the clock 10 years and listen to any of his insane rallies over the last few weeks and then be told you would be 100% supporting him in 2024 one would have to assume you had a stroke.   

Here is the historical average level of Chester Morse Reservoir compared to the current year.  It doesn't change much in any season.