TT-SEA

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is going with a much troughier solution later next week... less focus on CA and more on the PNW.  This makes sense from a climo perspective at this time of year but we have seen the models do this recently only to move it back to CA as it gets closer.    Personally I would love for next week and the weekend to be stormy because we will be in Charleston.   I would hate to miss out on a warm period here.    

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

If that isn’t a J***e pattern on the LR GFS then I don’t know what is.

It will inevitably change or get watered down.  

Beautiful morning... coming into NB from PT appointment earlier.

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

So I actually read about that yesterday.  Apparently, it's because the urban areas have larger storage facilities for water and can plan accordingly pretty far in advance.

The non-urban core is more dependent on consistent snow runoff due to having less storage.

As I mentioned yesterday... the Seattle area gets its water supply from the Chester Morse Reservoir and its at 100% of normal which is almost always the case regardless of the weather since we have so much cushion out here.  

1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

Brr 28 and heavy frost this morning hopefully my garden survives. 

Not a good idea to plant the garden before late April.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Almost 2 years worth of rain in Dubai today.

Imagine if North Bend saw 200” of rain in a day.

 

The scaling does not work like that.  

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Tim has bounced back to team blue. 

I would probably vote for Joe Biden in a nursing home not knowing his own name over a second-term lunatic on a vendetta tour.  Listening to Trump makes my ears bleed.   His buffoonery is a total insult to literally everyone's intelligence.  And not for any political reasons.     

If you could roll back the clock 10 years and listen to any of his insane rallies over the last few weeks and then be told you would be 100% supporting him in 2024 one would have to assume you had a stroke.   

Here is the historical average level of Chester Morse Reservoir compared to the current year.  It doesn't change much in any season.

30 minutes ago, T-Town said:

No drought in Tacoma. We have the Puget Sound right here so it makes sense. 

Seattle won't have any water supply issues.  Chester Morse Reservoir is at 100%.   Which probably happens even when precip is way below normal because we have so much cushion and outflow can easily be managed.  Controlling the level so water doesn’t top the dam is the goal there.  

Spectacular colder than normal afternoon!

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Some flakes mixing in here currently.

Had a hail/graupel shower here a little while ago.   Looks like sun is about to come out again now.

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Also interesting we’re seeing the more stable IO/E-Hem forcing again going deeper into spring. This tells me the +AMO/+IOD regime is likely here to stay through the summer.

 

What does that mean for summer?

Some sun... and still a little snow on the ridge.

Spring leaf out progression coming along nicely along the I-90 corridor.   Better than the last 2 years for sure as we have had some more sustained warm periods which is closer to climo... as April stats for the Seattle area indicate.

39 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Below average Precip. In some places well below. 

Indeed... its been basically normal in terms of temps but drier than normal.    

SEA is at -0.6 for the month.   

BLI is at -1.4 and HQM is at -0.3

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sunny here! Summer is saved! 

Sun is coming out here too!

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I bet there is a huge glacier on the other side

No.   Satellite image shows just forest.

A little snow on the ridge behind our house 

28 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Sitting at 1.3" for the month, with 3" to go to get to average...that's definitely not happening.

You probably had over 15 inches of rain in April over the last 2 years combined though. 

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

On that side.

Very true.  But that is the only side we see from North Bend. 

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow that mountain doesn’t even have snow in January!

It only has snow if it recently snowed or if we are in a very cold pattern.  

Dusting of snow on Mt. Si even with leafed out trees on this chilly morning... precip has ended now.   ECMWF shows there will be a decent amount of sun this afternoon across the area with some pop up showers later.

5 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

More hate-watching for our favorite troll:

Outstanding interview.

I loved the back and forth with Jon's points about the U.S. being total hypocrites about our stated goals and framed arguments for our actions, and David's simple response is "And so we've got to make a really hard and bad choice, which is, do we want to be the one trying to-- to fill that void with our technology and our principles, understanding that we violate them all the time? Or do we want to let an authoritarian regime go fill that space, which we know how that's going to look?" 

A simple yet incredibly hard to refute response.

We are the most benevolent imperialist power.  We f*ck up a lot of stuff around the world, but do you want them to fix things or us? 

The other interesting point that is pretty obvious is that China will throw as much as it can into catching up to TSMC, whether it is by ingenuity or theft, and as soon as they are, Taiwan is theirs.  Will the U.S. go to war over that?  Dunno.

There's no going back to fix our mistakes, and competition is really heating up around the world.  The next few decades are going to be very interesting.

Another clip from the show last night... start at 5:55.   Trump trying to talk about the civil war.  Hilarious sh*t.  

06Z GFS says just get through today and spring will return.  

Tiny coating of slush here.  @Meatyorologist called it!  

SEA radar is down as of 45 minutes ago so can't tell if more is coming but c-zone appeared to be falling apart when it went down.