TT-SEA

12Z ECMWF narrows the period with showers around with the incoming trough to just Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning. Its already fairly sunny again on Tuesday. Hope we can get enough rain to end the fire season.

Records are made to broken.

I have heard great things about December of 1933.

My local history guide (everyone's favorite) says there two likely paths from here... a complete descent into cold and rainy for fall (like off a cliff in 2012) or a period of variability with alternating periods of rainy and cool mixed with periods of dry and pleasant Note that pleasant does not always mean warm as temperatures start becoming dependent on inversions pretty soon. Staying warm and dry is not really an option from what I have seen. I really like seeing the deep trough showing up for next week. It will bring some needed rain and end the fire season and its early enough to possibly avoid the cliff scenario in October. No science here. Just what I have seen locally with a weak Nina following a long, dry summer.

Something will change... it always does. Particularly when looking 20 years out.

You are always too slow. And early to mid October would be a great time to have the PNW definition of Indian Summer.

OK Phil. 20 year forecasts now.

So... a deep trough for 3-4 days in the middle of September means that it will be cold and rainy from now until November?

I sure hope this is right... we have more opportunities for nice weather and snowy/cold weather up here when CA is taking the brunt of the Pacific energy.

He should move to Sitka.

Technically... Indian Summer is defined as a warm period after the first killing frost. And I don't think the ECMWF run goes out 2 months through mid-November. Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The US National Weather Servicedefines this as weather conditions that are sunny and clear with above normal temperatures, occurring late-September to mid-November.[1] It is usually described as occurring after a killing frost.[1]

Meaning rainfall for everyone early next week...

That is so funny. And they are from Spokane.

Little bit of smoke filtering in through the pass again. Should only be for today... onshore flow for the rest of the week.

Sarcasm detector not working?

00Z ECMWF was September perfection. Some warm days and cool, sunny days and one rain event one week from this morning.

Still looks like a lovely trough later in the week... minimal marine layer and highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Here is Wednesday...

Why are you a Panthers fan?? So much of a fan that you go to the Bay Area for a game?

Seahawks keep playing like this and football talk will not be a problem on here for a long.

Yes. Football season has started. It means its fall.

Terrible. How many years does it take to make that a priority? Everything else is worthless if you don't have a good o-line.

Seahawks were even more impotent than Irma. Pathetic performance.

I loved the ECMWF. Why would it only be Jesse? Cool, sunny trough later this week... nice weekend... and then some more rain on day 8... and then turning nice again. What is there not to like?

Yes Jim. Regardless of the cause... we all know the Earth is not warming.

What a gorgeous day.