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TT-SEA

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Everything posted by TT-SEA

  1. Obviously 70s is too hot as well. So are 50s. 38 and rain should be the norm in August. And December.
  2. Hey Phil... what does the 12Z ECMWF have for a high in Seattle on Sunday? Probably going to be an early high that day.
  3. ECMWF has been consistent in showing a rebound to warmth again next week. The real change has been a more robust trough to break up the two warm spells rather than blending them together.
  4. Its been really consistent. Monday sure looks sharply cooler though.
  5. 12Z ECMWF on board for a big warm up again next week. Huge crash on Monday too.
  6. Thanks for stopping by! Most people hate summer here... it horrific compared to the rest of the country.
  7. Have to agree that this probably sets us up for a cooler September. I would gladly take a repeat of 2015.
  8. Better ensemble support today as well... at least for something warmer than normal. The ECMWF operational run has been pretty consistent in showing a major warm up again next week. Its really similar to this week actually. Here is next Friday (8/26): http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-8QdDMV.png I was looking back a week ago and the ECMWF ensemble mean did not really support this current heat event either. This is the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to the operational run for tomorrow afternoon (8/19) from last Wednesday (8/10). The operational run had a much better handle on the situation and was indicating hot weather... the ensemble mean was much cooler. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-qqV6Vw.png
  9. Always fun to say troughs in August and September... and also April... WOULD bring snow and cold IF they had happened in the winter. It always works out in your mind. Not so much in reality.
  10. Does it compare to our endless heat right now that is making you so angry? It has been a nightmare of summer pleasantness here lately. Phil can certainly relate.
  11. Pretty much every trough in the last few winters has brought accumulating snow and frigid cold to Seattle. I can't remember the last time it did not work out for us here.
  12. That trough on Sunday would no doubt bring a good foot of snow to Seattle if it happened in December. Maybe lows in the single digits after it cleared out.
  13. Yes... that 582DM trough at 240 hours looks wicked! Of course that is a cherry picked frame surrounded by various forms of ridging.
  14. Another ridge building on the 00Z GFS in a week... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif
  15. Have you seen the Canadian already? Not updated for me. It would have to cave now I think.
  16. 00Z GFS ups the ante with the trough on Sunday... got to give Matt credit for seeing that long before the models settled on the solution.
  17. Even in the dead of winter... what appears to be arctic does not always work for us. Let alone speculating optimistically in August about what it would be in winter.
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