Better ensemble support today as well... at least for something warmer than normal. The ECMWF operational run has been pretty consistent in showing a major warm up again next week. Its really similar to this week actually. Here is next Friday (8/26): http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-8QdDMV.png I was looking back a week ago and the ECMWF ensemble mean did not really support this current heat event either. This is the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to the operational run for tomorrow afternoon (8/19) from last Wednesday (8/10). The operational run had a much better handle on the situation and was indicating hot weather... the ensemble mean was much cooler. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-qqV6Vw.png