TT-SEA

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nothing big. But only a couple above normal days after today. 

Not much different than previous runs.   ECMWF does run cool so probably close to normal overall which is very nice at this time of year with plenty of sun.   

He was just trolling of course.  I posted a strong troughing signal on the 00Z EPS and also talked about the GFS being quite wet next weekend.   He is one with the anxiety issues... just projecting of course.   

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

when in doubt drink beer in the sun

Indeed... will be doing that at some point this afternoon.  

ECMWF and EPS definitely still drier than normal.  Lots of sunny days on the ECMWF. 

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seize the weekend!

Had to stop on way home from Bellevue.    We were rushing because it's so nice out.

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

VERY WET?! Not really. One day with some rain. It's April not August and we are still on pace for one of the driest April's in memory. 

Costco Issaquah parking lot... no snow piles to report.

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

VERY WET?! Not really. One day with some rain. It's April not August and we are still on pace for one of the driest April's in memory. 

Rain both days next weekend.   Previous runs were dry.   I was only talking about next weekend. 

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse may flog me for this, but I don't hate the 12z GFS. If it is going to be dry may as well have some frost chances. 

12Z GFS is very wet next weekend down there.   Totally different than previous runs.

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

won't be long

Looks like an area that is supposed to burn naturally... and frequently.    

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you work for Boeing?

No... but good question.  My son does and he might go to Charleston for work.   I am tagging along with my wife for a conference. 

Live view this morning from a hotel in Bellevue... we had to use free points that were about to expire so did dinner and bowling night with the kids.   Heading to Charleston in a few days so stayed very local this time.  Unlike all you rich 1% people traveling all over the country on your own dime for a 4-minute eclipse... Charleston is an annual tag long business trip at no expense to us.  

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well look at that. Someone posted a cold anomaly map. 

I do that all the time... just looking for strong signals either way.    Take it as it comes Andrew.   We are only here for a short while.

Pretty strong troughy signal on the 00Z EPS towards the end of the run.  

00Z ECMWF looks much less troughy later in the run than it's 12Z run.    Nice when things trend the good way.   

Monday is solidly cloudy and chilly... Tuesday ends up quite sunny but still chilly.   Then looks like a pretty nice run of sunny, pleasant weather.  

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The trees look nowhere close to that in Duvall. Though they are leafed out a bit.

Interesting.    Maybe colder nights out there? 

This was 4 days ago in North Bend.  Quite a bit farther along now.  

Global warming has stopped!  Or maybe slowed down.  Either way today was huge win.

A little warmer out here away from the water and protected from the north wind. 

Landscape starting to take on the summer look.   Just drove from North Bend to Bellevue and the trees are uniformly at about the same stage on that drive... about the same in NB as in Bellevue.

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't want to pour gasoline on the fire, but you are pretty conveniently cutting off April 2016 and it's juicy 90-burger. Just peep at that spike, yowzers!

But looking at the graph again, you can see we're simply making up for the dip during the 2000s, amidst an overall warming trend since records began. We're probably just oscillating back into a slightly shallower low point than the 2000s dip. April might be a little cooler for the next decade. Or probably not. Who knows.

Recent years in arbitrary of course.     2015 and 2016 were crazy warm Nino springs.    Since then there has not been much of trend at all.

5 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I think most of that is due to the persistent la Nina since 2017. We should have been running pretty significantly wetter and colder than normal, but it ended up being normal temps.

I would not say Nina has been persistent since 2017.   The Nina effect was in full gear in 2022 and 2023 and those Aprils did end up colder and much wetter than normal.   

So focusing on just April... since 2017 Portland has averaged 3.26 inches of rain in April compared to the long term average of 2.53 inches.   Significantly wetter than average.   

Also in Portland since 2017... April has averaged 52.8 degrees compared to normal of 52.8 degrees.  Exactly normal overall in recent years.   In addition... the last 2 years April was colder and much wetter than normal. 

I think its more of the usual irrational doom and gloom to say April is becoming more of a summer month in recent years.   Its been normal in terms of temps and quite a bit wetter than normal in terms of precip.   

Those are just straight statistics.   Not much room for debate there.  

12Z EPS was actually sort of ridgy at day 10 and more so than its 00Z run... in contrast to the ECMWF that showed a trough moving through at that time.  

And it shows a really strong signal for drier than normal over the next 2 weeks.  

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

For most the lowland PNW, 12z Euro shows 4 of the next 10 days warmer than normal, 4 below normal, and 2 right around normal.

Sounds like normal to me.  

I like the fact that it shows it being mostly sunny for most of the next 8 days (Monday being the exception). 

Another interesting stat... for the 3 most recent years (2021, 2022, and 2023) Portland was slightly wetter than normal overall with 111.36 inches of rain in that period compared to normal of 110.70 inches.

And PDX is running over 3 inches wetter than normal for 2024 so far.  

Makes a drier than normal April seem less like the end of the world.  

So lets use Portland... April was wetter than normal in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023.  

And 2022 and 2023 were extremely wet with more than 200% of normal rainfall.   A drier than normal April this year probably makes sense.  

Meanwhile... down in CA where mid-April is usually the start of the reliably dry season people are wondering why its still winter.    Reservoirs are full and its dumping rain... all despite global warming.