TT-SEA

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hey I didn’t use the J-word to describe the 12z EPS. Though I did consider it (because it’s true  ).

It's interesting because the pattern next week is one way to have spectacular weather with troughing overhead.    The GFS was troughy all of next week and most days were sunny and in the 60s.   That is my favorite kind of April weather.   Too much heat in April is usually offset during the summer months.

Seems like we are going to have weak troughing remaining in place next week as ridge builds to the north... 18Z GFS showing it as well.   But its really a nice pattern overall with lots of sun and pleasant temps if it works out this way.  A west coast warm finger situation for many days in a row.

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Looks like a simple probabilistic forecast. Which would certainly be low confidence in this case, but “impossible” is a stretch.

In 2019 it was obvious early on that the 4CH would be suppressed with a flatter, more westerly upper level pattern in the PNW. That fire season was almost nonexistent as a result.

In 2021 it was the opposite, when it was clear by April that the 4CH would a massive beast (lots of off-eq convection, very wide ITCZ/HC).

What does this summer look like in terms of 4CH?

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but it makes the people who want summer to start this week feel better about things.

Feeling down about what other people like?

The 12Z ECMWF shows 8 of the next 10 days being generally sunny in the Seattle area... the exceptions being today and next Monday.

Nicer than I was expecting today... thought it would be solidly cloudy all day.  

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

But it’s about to reload. Basically looks like yesterdays CMC, which you said was a “huge outlier”.

I don't know if that is about to re-load as there is nothing to push the trough to the north southward.    But the next run will be totally different anyways so extrapolating at 240 hours is pointless.  

But as I mentioned earlier the models have definitely trended towards hold back more troughing next week.   Still looks generally dry and quite pleasant though.  

36 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hopefully the 12z run continues this theme. Quite chilly for almost the entire West.

12Z ECMWF was less robust with western troughing later next week compared to its 00Z run.  

56 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

point out it is a big deal

And I didn't say otherwise.  

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Probably no big deal according to Tim

I said it's related to Nino... which it is.   What do you plan to do about it to change it?

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Early next week is a textbook Arctic blast in DJF

I was thinking the same thing.   And the models are definitely starting to lean towards keeping some degree of troughing hanging back to the west next week with a big ridge over BC.  The 06Z GFS went in that direction as well.   This pattern would be frigid in the winter but now its not even that chilly.   And certainly not how BC gets some late season snow.

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Devastating. But at least people in North Bend get to BBQ this week! 

Our BBQ is on a covered patio... we do that in the middle of winter sometimes!

And the BC situation is the result of Nino focusing the systems on CA.   When BC is the center of attention then we usually have a droughty CA.   Can't have it all.  

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think the winter predictions were a joke man. But yes I agree, I think our ECOSYSTEM can HANDLE a couple eighpril eighty-burgers.

I wasn't even talking about 80-degree weather... more like 60s which is pretty common for April.

00Z ECMWF on the hand is no longer progressive with the trough later next week.   Looks more like the GEM now.   00Z GEFS is still progressive though.   Interesting model battle developing. 

Liking the 00Z GFS so far... beautiful weekend then rain on Monday and clearing Tuesday and then back to sunny and mild.

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I read somewhere that last year was the final settling of our May 1962 debt. So we oughta be good to go now.

 

Nice!

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I never mock anyone..... as I mock and mock and mock and mock and mock and mock and mocka mocka mocka mocka mocka mocka.

Don't be so hard on yourself Chris.   

And pointing out intentionally silly predictions is not mocking.    

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's the start of our cold May.

May-king up for last year's torchfest.

That was just payback for the sh*tshow that was May 2022.

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I love the crisp morning air during transition months. In the fall, we know summer is ending and we’re heading towards winter. Now, it’s heading towards summer again but it doesn’t make me love (hate?) it much less. Longer we can hang onto this the better before the heat is here. 

Plus we have some of the best summer weather in the country in between.

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we'll revisit in 90 days. deal?

We don't average much rain over the next few months.   Even drier than normal won't push us into "severe drought".  

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's just people being silly, Tim. Nothing new on here. Kinda strange that it's suddenly gotten under your skin.

I must be getting old.  Just seems so pointless. 

One additional note... it wasn't a comment that drought is possible.  That is true.  It was "severe drought incoming".   Right in line with other comments like 100 degree temps all summer and massive blizzards and the strongest Nina ever recorded next winter.   Just extreme hyperbole for the sake of extreme hyperbole.  Meaningless.

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like a stout -PNA is still coming. Perhaps it will even snow! 

Prayers for anyone arriving home to a pleasant weekend in the 60s.  Ecosystem destroying madness for mid April.   I guess our short respite from endless whining is over.  

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty chilly in the mid range.

Yes... a trough for a couple days early next week is a given.    But ECMWF and EPS show that its quite progressive and fairly dry.  

Lovely afternoon... particularly after the last few days have been generally gloomy and wet.   Nice to see days like this might become more frequent over the next couple of weeks.