TT-SEA

Theatrics. I think you might be losing your mind.

So much theatrics with you... they truly don't "desperately" need the moisture. Not sure if you are acting or going crazy.

First it looked ridgy... then it looked like it troughing would be focused to the north... and now the models have come around to more of the same with that system diving down to SoCal next weekend. Crazy model swings the last few days.

I would say the normal odds of that happening in his area are around 50% in early May. Graupel showers are pretty easy with any cold troughing convection.

Or a necessity for some.

Yes... locals live in an alternate universe where every road going north towards Portland from Salem wasn't clogged. Of course you didn't drive north into Portland that day.

Totally agree. I was enjoying my coffee and commented to my wife on the axisymmetric dissociation in the LF state in tropical convection.

My sons said it was totally worth it and didn't care about the traffic. I just remembered them updating me on the very slow trip home when Andrew mentioned there was no traffic at all.

Strange timing considering the ridge next weekend vanished and now the models show cold troughing instead.

My sons and a bunch of their friends drove to a field south of Salem the night before and watched the eclipse there... but it took them hours to just get back into the Portland area afterwards. I guess I-5 was a parking lot so they went through Silverton and came up into Oregon City but even that was bumper-to-bumper for miles.

It was in August and we weren't in the path of totality.

The ECMWF also shows lightning happening right during the eclipse in parts of central Texas. There is a video of something similar happening in Nebraska during the 2017 eclipse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stmE9uNsSjw

Sure is going to be warm for the eclipse... even areas well to the NE of Texas.

Pretty significant change for the EPS at one week out compared to its 12Z run. Looks like next weekend will be quite troughy now.

Starting to actually hate the 2024 Mariners.

Buffalo would have been very easy since the center line of the totality path goes almost right over the airport there. You could land in the morning and walk outside and watch the eclipse and then go right back inside and catch a flight home.

Sure hope so!

I sure like the 12Z GFS.

Looks fairly clear there on Monday.

Pullman airport cam...

Yes... appears that convection develops by early afternoon moving west from the coast. Going to be a close call for places in central Texas.

The latest ECMWF actually looks decent for Texas... this is mostly just high clouds.

00Z GFS looks a little warmer later next week... and the GEM is much cooler. Lots of inconsistencies in the operational models.

Hoping for sustained warmth without any extremes... that is basically what the EPS is showing.

GEM has significantly moved toward the ridgy scenario over the last 2 runs since your post... including the new 12Z run coming out now. Very different than its 12Z run yesterday. But that does not mean there is a "heatwave" coming either.